What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?

Doug M. Smith; Adam A. Scaife; Ben P. Kirtman

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602

What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?

Doug M. Smith, Adam A. Scaife, Ben P. Kirtman

Atmospheric Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

105 Scopus citations

Abstract

Environmental factors, such as the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events, are important drivers of migration and displacement of people. There is therefore a growing need for regional climate predictions for the coming seasons to decades. This paper reviews the current state of the art of seasonal to decadal climate prediction, focusing on the potential sources of skill, forecasting techniques, current capability and future prospects.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	015602
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	7
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602
State	Published - Mar 2012

Keywords

climate
decadal
predictability
prediction
seasonal

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Environmental Science(all)
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602

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@article{e8f47b34c90348f9a833288a1f745a8d,

title = "What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?",

abstract = "Environmental factors, such as the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events, are important drivers of migration and displacement of people. There is therefore a growing need for regional climate predictions for the coming seasons to decades. This paper reviews the current state of the art of seasonal to decadal climate prediction, focusing on the potential sources of skill, forecasting techniques, current capability and future prospects.",

keywords = "climate, decadal, predictability, prediction, seasonal",

author = "Smith, {Doug M.} and Scaife, {Adam A.} and Kirtman, {Ben P.}",

year = "2012",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "7",

journal = "Environmental Research Letters",

issn = "1748-9326",