Uncertainty propagation in coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean prediction system: A study of Hurricane Earl (2010)

Guotu Li, Milan Curcic, Mohamed Iskandarani, Shuyi S. Chen, Omar M. Knio

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This study focuses on understanding the evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010) with respect to random perturbations in the storm's initial strength, size, and asymmetry in wind distribution. We rely on the Unified Wave Interface-Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean system to generate a storm realization ensemble, and use polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to build surrogate models for time evolution of both the maximum wind speed and minimum sea level pressure in Earl. The resulting PC surrogate models provide statistical insights on probability distributions of model responses throughout the simulation time span. Statistical analysis of rapid intensification (RI) suggests that initial perturbations having intensified and counterclockwise-rotated winds are more likely to undergo RI. In addition, for the range of initial conditions considered RI seems mostly sensitive to azimuthally averaged maximum wind speed and asymmetry orientation, rather than storm size and asymmetry magnitude; this is consistent with global sensitivity analysis of PC surrogate models. Finally, we combine initial condition perturbations with a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) forcing in the UWIN-CM simulations and conclude that the storm tracks are substantially influenced by the SKEBS forcing perturbations, whereas the perturbations in initial conditions alone had only limited impact on the storm-track forecast.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)221-245
Number of pages25
JournalMonthly Weather Review
Volume147
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019

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ocean wave
hurricane
perturbation
atmosphere
chaotic dynamics
prediction
asymmetry
storm track
backscatter
kinetic energy
wind velocity
sea level pressure
simulation
sensitivity analysis
statistical analysis

Keywords

  • Bayesian methods
  • Empirical orthogonal functions
  • General circulation models
  • Statistical techniques

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Uncertainty propagation in coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean prediction system : A study of Hurricane Earl (2010). / Li, Guotu; Curcic, Milan; Iskandarani, Mohamed; Chen, Shuyi S.; Knio, Omar M.

In: Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 147, No. 1, 01.01.2019, p. 221-245.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Li, Guotu ; Curcic, Milan ; Iskandarani, Mohamed ; Chen, Shuyi S. ; Knio, Omar M. / Uncertainty propagation in coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean prediction system : A study of Hurricane Earl (2010). In: Monthly Weather Review. 2019 ; Vol. 147, No. 1. pp. 221-245.
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