Purpose To determine the cumulative incidence of optic disc hemorrhage (ODH) before and after development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG); determine the prognostic significance of ODH for the development of POAG; and identify predictive factors for ODH. Design Prospective cohort study. Methods ODHs were evaluated in 3236 eyes of 1618 Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) participants annually using stereoscopic optic disc photographs. The incidence of ODH before and after the development of POAG, the risk of ODH for POAG, and risk factors for ODH were determined using a multivariate proportional hazards regression model. Results After a median follow-up of 13 years, 1 or more ODHs were detected in 179 eyes of 169 participants. The incidence of ODH was 0.5% per year during an average of 13 years before the development of POAG and 1.2% per year during an average of 6 years after the development of POAG. The cumulative incidence of POAG in eyes with ODH was 25.6% compared with 12.9% in eyes without ODH. The occurrence of an ODH increased the risk of developing POAG 2.6-fold in the multivariate analysis (95% confidence interval, 1.7–4.0; P <.0001). Randomization to the observation group, older age, thinner central corneal thickness, larger vertical cup-to-disc ratio, higher intraocular pressure, and self-reported black race were identified as risk factors for ODH. Conclusion ODH is an independent predictive factor for the development of POAG in patients with ocular hypertension (OHT) and the predictive factors for ODH are very similar to those for POAG in OHT patients.
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