The ocean's role in modeling and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variations

Ben P. Kirtman, Tim Stockdale, Robert Burgman

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

5 Scopus citations


This chapter summarizes the scientific basis for and the current status of seasonal-to-interannual prediction with particular emphasis on the role of the tropical oceans. The first part of the chapter focuses on oceanic sources of predictability in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Seasonal-to-interannual predictability issues in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are also discussed. Mechanisms that limit predictability, particularly for ENSO, are highlighted. The second part of the chapter describes the forecast quality and procedures in practice today. Finally, the concluding remarks identify some outstanding challenges.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationInternational Geophysics
PublisherAcademic Press
Number of pages19
StatePublished - 2013

Publication series

NameInternational Geophysics
ISSN (Print)0074-6142


  • Air-sea interactions
  • Forecast quality
  • High resolution
  • Predictability
  • Prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics


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