The intensity forecasting experiment: A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts

Robert Rogers, Sim Aberson, Michael Black, Peter Black, Joe Cione, Peter Dodge, Jason Dunion, John Gamache, John Kaplan, Mark Powell, Lynn K Shay, Naomi Surgi, Eric Uhlhorn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

124 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In 2005, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD), part of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, began a multiyear experiment called the Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX). By emphasizing a partnership among NOAA's HRD, Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), Aircraft Operations Center (AOC), and National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service (NESDIS), IFEX represents a new approach for conducting hurricane field program operations. IFEX is intended to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change by 1) collecting observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments; 2) developing and refining measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improving the understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. This paper presents a summary of the accomplishments of IFEX during the 2005 hurricane season. New and refined technologies for measuring such fields as surface and three-dimensional wind fields, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, were achieved in a variety of field experiments that spanned the life cycle of several tropical cyclones, from formation and early organization to peak intensity and subsequent landfall or extratropical transition. Partnerships with other experiments during 2005 also expanded the spatial and temporal coverage of the data collected in 2005. A brief discussion of the plans for IFEX in 2006 is also provided.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1523-1537
Number of pages15
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume87
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2006

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tropical cyclone
hurricane
experiment
life cycle
environmental modeling
programme
forecast
wind field
satellite data
aircraft
monitoring
prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

The intensity forecasting experiment : A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. / Rogers, Robert; Aberson, Sim; Black, Michael; Black, Peter; Cione, Joe; Dodge, Peter; Dunion, Jason; Gamache, John; Kaplan, John; Powell, Mark; Shay, Lynn K; Surgi, Naomi; Uhlhorn, Eric.

In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 87, No. 11, 11.2006, p. 1523-1537.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Rogers, R, Aberson, S, Black, M, Black, P, Cione, J, Dodge, P, Dunion, J, Gamache, J, Kaplan, J, Powell, M, Shay, LK, Surgi, N & Uhlhorn, E 2006, 'The intensity forecasting experiment: A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 87, no. 11, pp. 1523-1537. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-11-1523
Rogers, Robert ; Aberson, Sim ; Black, Michael ; Black, Peter ; Cione, Joe ; Dodge, Peter ; Dunion, Jason ; Gamache, John ; Kaplan, John ; Powell, Mark ; Shay, Lynn K ; Surgi, Naomi ; Uhlhorn, Eric. / The intensity forecasting experiment : A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2006 ; Vol. 87, No. 11. pp. 1523-1537.
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