The dynamics of hurricane risk perception: Real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Robert J. Meyer, Jay Baker, Kenneth Broad, Jeff Czajkowski, Ben Orlove

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

30 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Data from field surveys are discussed that measured the evolution of coastal residents' risk perceptions and preparation plans as two hurricanes, Isaac and Sandy, approached the United States during the 2012 hurricane season. Surveyed residents overestimated the probability that their homes would be affected by hurricane-force winds, but then they displayed limited degrees of concern over this prospect. These residents also underestimated the threat posed by flooding, including people living adjacent to water areas. The surveys revealed that residents nevertheless had a higher awareness of a storm's maximum winds rather than flood potential. Specifically, when respondents were asked to report what they believed Isaac's and Sandy's maximum winds and predicted maximum storm surges to be, respondents were much better at the former than the latter. What was particularly notable was that the tendency to underestimate the relative threat posed by water in Isaac and Sandy even among those for whom the threat should have been most salient.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1389-1404
Number of pages16
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume95
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2014

Fingerprint

risk perception
hurricane
storm surge
field survey
flooding
water

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

The dynamics of hurricane risk perception : Real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. / Meyer, Robert J.; Baker, Jay; Broad, Kenneth; Czajkowski, Jeff; Orlove, Ben.

In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, No. 9, 01.09.2014, p. 1389-1404.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Meyer, Robert J. ; Baker, Jay ; Broad, Kenneth ; Czajkowski, Jeff ; Orlove, Ben. / The dynamics of hurricane risk perception : Real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2014 ; Vol. 95, No. 9. pp. 1389-1404.
@article{24b0cda8b1994391a23bc6b85c3176f1,
title = "The dynamics of hurricane risk perception: Real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season",
abstract = "Data from field surveys are discussed that measured the evolution of coastal residents' risk perceptions and preparation plans as two hurricanes, Isaac and Sandy, approached the United States during the 2012 hurricane season. Surveyed residents overestimated the probability that their homes would be affected by hurricane-force winds, but then they displayed limited degrees of concern over this prospect. These residents also underestimated the threat posed by flooding, including people living adjacent to water areas. The surveys revealed that residents nevertheless had a higher awareness of a storm's maximum winds rather than flood potential. Specifically, when respondents were asked to report what they believed Isaac's and Sandy's maximum winds and predicted maximum storm surges to be, respondents were much better at the former than the latter. What was particularly notable was that the tendency to underestimate the relative threat posed by water in Isaac and Sandy even among those for whom the threat should have been most salient.",
author = "Meyer, {Robert J.} and Jay Baker and Kenneth Broad and Jeff Czajkowski and Ben Orlove",
year = "2014",
month = "9",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00218.1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "95",
pages = "1389--1404",
journal = "Earth Interactions",
issn = "0003-0007",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "9",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The dynamics of hurricane risk perception

T2 - Real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

AU - Meyer, Robert J.

AU - Baker, Jay

AU - Broad, Kenneth

AU - Czajkowski, Jeff

AU - Orlove, Ben

PY - 2014/9/1

Y1 - 2014/9/1

N2 - Data from field surveys are discussed that measured the evolution of coastal residents' risk perceptions and preparation plans as two hurricanes, Isaac and Sandy, approached the United States during the 2012 hurricane season. Surveyed residents overestimated the probability that their homes would be affected by hurricane-force winds, but then they displayed limited degrees of concern over this prospect. These residents also underestimated the threat posed by flooding, including people living adjacent to water areas. The surveys revealed that residents nevertheless had a higher awareness of a storm's maximum winds rather than flood potential. Specifically, when respondents were asked to report what they believed Isaac's and Sandy's maximum winds and predicted maximum storm surges to be, respondents were much better at the former than the latter. What was particularly notable was that the tendency to underestimate the relative threat posed by water in Isaac and Sandy even among those for whom the threat should have been most salient.

AB - Data from field surveys are discussed that measured the evolution of coastal residents' risk perceptions and preparation plans as two hurricanes, Isaac and Sandy, approached the United States during the 2012 hurricane season. Surveyed residents overestimated the probability that their homes would be affected by hurricane-force winds, but then they displayed limited degrees of concern over this prospect. These residents also underestimated the threat posed by flooding, including people living adjacent to water areas. The surveys revealed that residents nevertheless had a higher awareness of a storm's maximum winds rather than flood potential. Specifically, when respondents were asked to report what they believed Isaac's and Sandy's maximum winds and predicted maximum storm surges to be, respondents were much better at the former than the latter. What was particularly notable was that the tendency to underestimate the relative threat posed by water in Isaac and Sandy even among those for whom the threat should have been most salient.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84910074173&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84910074173&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00218.1

DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00218.1

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84910074173

VL - 95

SP - 1389

EP - 1404

JO - Earth Interactions

JF - Earth Interactions

SN - 0003-0007

IS - 9

ER -