Terrorist attacks, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts

Carina Cuculiza, Constantinos Antoniou, Alok Kumar, Anastasios Maligkris

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

We examine whether exogenous and extremely negative events, such as terrorist attacks and mass shootings, influence the sentiment and forecasts of sell-side equity analysts. We find that analysts who are local to these attacks issue forecasts that are relatively more pessimistic than the consensus forecast. This effect is stronger when the analyst is closer to the event and located in a low-crime region. Impacted analysts are also relatively more pessimistic around the one- and two-year anniversaries of the attacks. Collectively, these findings indicate that exposure to extreme negative events affects the behavior of information intermediaries and the information dissemination process in financial markets.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2579-2608
Number of pages30
JournalManagement science
Volume67
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2021
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Analyst sentiment
  • Extreme events
  • Forecast accuracy
  • Terrorist attacks

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research

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