Structural vector error correction modeling of integrated sportfishery data

David W. Carter, David Letson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations


We demonstrate how to specify and estimate a time series model that can isolate the effects of changes in fishery policy and forecast the outcome of policy changes in the context of changing climate and economic factors. The approach is illustrated with datafrom the headboat fishery for red snapper in the Gulf of Mexico. The initial data analysis finds that effort and harvest are cointegrated series and that effort appears to respond somewhat to past changes in harvest. This suggested a structural vector error correction model specification. Model estimation results indicate that seasonal closures directly influence both harvest and effort, whereas bag and minimum size limits only affect harvest directly. Also, climate activity has a moderate influence on this fishery, mainly via changes in effort. Model forecasts are evaluated relative to a more naïve specification using out-of-sample data and the use of the modelfor policy analysis is demonstrated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)19-41
Number of pages23
JournalMarine Resource Economics
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 1 2009


  • Climate
  • Gulf of Mexico
  • Red snapper
  • Sportfishing demand
  • Structural vector error correction
  • Time series

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oceanography
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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