Stability and backward bifurcation in a malaria transmission model with applications to the control of malaria in China

Xiaomei Feng, Shigui Ruan, Zhidong Teng, Kai Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

26 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a deterministic malaria transmission model with standard incidence rate and treatment. Human population is divided into susceptible, infectious and recovered subclasses, and mosquito population is split into susceptible and infectious classes. It is assumed that, among individuals with malaria who are treated or recovered spontaneously, a proportion moves to the recovered class with temporary immunity and the other proportion returns to the susceptible class. Firstly, it is shown that two endemic equilibria may exist when the basic reproduction number R01. The presence of a backward bifurcation implies that it is possible for malaria to persist even if R01. To deal with this problem, the estimate of the Lozinski. ĭ measure of a 6 × 6 matrix is discussed. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical results. The model is also used to simulate the human malaria data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health from 2002 to 2013. It is estimated that the basic reproduction number R0≈0.0161 for the malaria transmission in China and it is found that the plan of eliminating malaria in China is practical under the current control strategies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)52-64
Number of pages13
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume266
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Keywords

  • Backward bifurcation
  • Geometric approach
  • Global stability
  • Lozinskiĭ measure
  • Malaria

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Applied Mathematics
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

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