Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data

Wendi Wang, Shigui Ruan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

97 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)369-379
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume227
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 7 2004

Fingerprint

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Probable
Disease Outbreaks
China
Reproduction
Theoretical Models
Reproduction number
mathematical models
Model
Mathematical models
Beijing
Vary
Mathematical Model
Estimate

Keywords

  • Epidemic model
  • Incidence rate
  • Reproduction number
  • SARS

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data. / Wang, Wendi; Ruan, Shigui.

In: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 227, No. 3, 07.04.2004, p. 369-379.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{62be5f3640a848d2bd89c2825aca83c4,
title = "Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data",
abstract = "We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.",
keywords = "Epidemic model, Incidence rate, Reproduction number, SARS",
author = "Wendi Wang and Shigui Ruan",
year = "2004",
month = "4",
day = "7",
doi = "10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.014",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "227",
pages = "369--379",
journal = "Journal of Theoretical Biology",
issn = "0022-5193",
publisher = "Academic Press Inc.",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data

AU - Wang, Wendi

AU - Ruan, Shigui

PY - 2004/4/7

Y1 - 2004/4/7

N2 - We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.

AB - We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.

KW - Epidemic model

KW - Incidence rate

KW - Reproduction number

KW - SARS

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=1542298927&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=1542298927&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.014

DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.014

M3 - Article

VL - 227

SP - 369

EP - 379

JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology

JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology

SN - 0022-5193

IS - 3

ER -