Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data

Wendi Wang, Shigui Ruan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

101 Scopus citations

Abstract

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)369-379
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of theoretical biology
Volume227
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 7 2004

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Keywords

  • Epidemic model
  • Incidence rate
  • Reproduction number
  • SARS

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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