Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

Siew Ann Cheong, Teck Liang Tan, Chien Chih Chen, Wu Lung Chang, Zheng Liu, Lock Yue Chew, Peter M A Sloot, Neil F Johnson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number3624
JournalScientific Reports
Volume4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 10 2014

Fingerprint

earthquake
earthquake catalogue
aftershock
energy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Cheong, S. A., Tan, T. L., Chen, C. C., Chang, W. L., Liu, Z., Chew, L. Y., ... Johnson, N. F. (2014). Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes. Scientific Reports, 4, [3624]. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep03624

Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes. / Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien Chih; Chang, Wu Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M A; Johnson, Neil F.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 4, 3624, 10.01.2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Cheong, SA, Tan, TL, Chen, CC, Chang, WL, Liu, Z, Chew, LY, Sloot, PMA & Johnson, NF 2014, 'Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes', Scientific Reports, vol. 4, 3624. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep03624
Cheong, Siew Ann ; Tan, Teck Liang ; Chen, Chien Chih ; Chang, Wu Lung ; Liu, Zheng ; Chew, Lock Yue ; Sloot, Peter M A ; Johnson, Neil F. / Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes. In: Scientific Reports. 2014 ; Vol. 4.
@article{23b1567d77c2456b8f044e1fc99458ed,
title = "Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes",
abstract = "Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.",
author = "Cheong, {Siew Ann} and Tan, {Teck Liang} and Chen, {Chien Chih} and Chang, {Wu Lung} and Zheng Liu and Chew, {Lock Yue} and Sloot, {Peter M A} and Johnson, {Neil F}",
year = "2014",
month = "1",
day = "10",
doi = "10.1038/srep03624",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "4",
journal = "Scientific Reports",
issn = "2045-2322",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

AU - Cheong, Siew Ann

AU - Tan, Teck Liang

AU - Chen, Chien Chih

AU - Chang, Wu Lung

AU - Liu, Zheng

AU - Chew, Lock Yue

AU - Sloot, Peter M A

AU - Johnson, Neil F

PY - 2014/1/10

Y1 - 2014/1/10

N2 - Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

AB - Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84892186401&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84892186401&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/srep03624

DO - 10.1038/srep03624

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84892186401

VL - 4

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

SN - 2045-2322

M1 - 3624

ER -