Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

Siew Ann Cheong, Teck Liang Tan, Chien Chih Chen, Wu Lung Chang, Zheng Liu, Lock Yue Chew, Peter M.A. Sloot, Neil F. Johnson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number3624
JournalScientific reports
Volume4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 10 2014

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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    Cheong, S. A., Tan, T. L., Chen, C. C., Chang, W. L., Liu, Z., Chew, L. Y., Sloot, P. M. A., & Johnson, N. F. (2014). Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes. Scientific reports, 4, [3624]. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep03624