We incorporate stochastic, density-dependent seasonal recruitment in adult Anopheles mosquito populations in a discrete-event model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission and find the probabilities of parasite extinction higher than with perennial transmission. Seasonal fluctuations in vector populations act to synchronize the dynamics of infection and immunity in host populations, leading to fluctuations in parasite prevalence greater than expected solely on the basis of high- and low-season vector densities. This synchronization also biases frequencies of infection with multiple parasite phenotypes or genotypes.
|Original language||English (US)|
|Number of pages||9|
|State||Published - 2001|
- Local extinction
ASJC Scopus subject areas