Quantitative patterns in drone wars

Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Peter Sheridan Dodds, Neil F Johnson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Attacks by drones (i.e., unmanned combat air vehicles) continue to generate heated political and ethical debates. Here we examine the quantitative nature of drone attacks, focusing on how their intensity and frequency compare with that of other forms of human conflict. Instead of the power-law distribution found recently for insurgent and terrorist attacks, the severity of attacks is more akin to lognormal and exponential distributions, suggesting that the dynamics underlying drone attacks lie beyond these other forms of human conflict. We find that the pattern in the timing of attacks is consistent with one side having almost complete control, an important if expected result. We show that these novel features can be reproduced and understood using a generative mathematical model in which resource allocation to the dominant side is regulated through a feedback loop.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)380-384
Number of pages5
JournalPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Volume443
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2015

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attack
Attack
resource allocation
combat
Generative Models
Log Normal Distribution
Power-law Distribution
Feedback Loop
Exponential distribution
Resource Allocation
Timing
mathematical models
vehicles
Continue
time measurement
Mathematical Model
air
Human
Form
Conflict

Keywords

  • Drones
  • Scaling
  • Terrorism
  • Warfare

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Condensed Matter Physics
  • Statistics and Probability

Cite this

Quantitative patterns in drone wars. / Garcia-Bernardo, Javier; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Johnson, Neil F.

In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Vol. 443, 01.10.2015, p. 380-384.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Garcia-Bernardo, Javier ; Dodds, Peter Sheridan ; Johnson, Neil F. / Quantitative patterns in drone wars. In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 2015 ; Vol. 443. pp. 380-384.
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