Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events

Sofia Apreleva, Neil F Johnson, Tsai Ching Lu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Progress curves have been used to model the evolution of a wide range of human activities -- from manufacturing to cancer surgery. In each case, the time to complete a given challenging task is found to decrease with successive repetitions, and follows an approximate power law. Recently, it was also employed in connection with the prediction of the escalation of fatal attacks by insurgent groups, with the insurgency "progressing" by continually adapting, while the opposing force tried to counter-adapt. In the present work, we provide the first application of progress curves to financial market events, in order to gain insight into the dynamics underlying significant changes in economic markets, such as stock indices and the currency exchange rate and also examine their use for eventual prediction of such extreme market events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationComplex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages11-28
Number of pages18
Volume126 LNICST
ISBN (Print)9783319034720
StatePublished - 2013
Event2nd International Conference on Complex Sciences, COMPLEX 2012 - Santa Fe, United States
Duration: Dec 5 2012Dec 7 2012

Publication series

NameLecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST
Volume126 LNICST
ISSN (Print)1867-8211

Other

Other2nd International Conference on Complex Sciences, COMPLEX 2012
CountryUnited States
CitySanta Fe
Period12/5/1212/7/12

Fingerprint

Surgery
Economics
Financial markets

Keywords

  • Currency exchange rates
  • Prediction
  • Progress Curve fitting
  • Stock indexes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications

Cite this

Apreleva, S., Johnson, N. F., & Lu, T. C. (2013). Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events. In Complex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers (Vol. 126 LNICST, pp. 11-28). (Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST; Vol. 126 LNICST). Springer Verlag.

Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events. / Apreleva, Sofia; Johnson, Neil F; Lu, Tsai Ching.

Complex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers. Vol. 126 LNICST Springer Verlag, 2013. p. 11-28 (Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST; Vol. 126 LNICST).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Apreleva, S, Johnson, NF & Lu, TC 2013, Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events. in Complex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers. vol. 126 LNICST, Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST, vol. 126 LNICST, Springer Verlag, pp. 11-28, 2nd International Conference on Complex Sciences, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, United States, 12/5/12.
Apreleva S, Johnson NF, Lu TC. Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events. In Complex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers. Vol. 126 LNICST. Springer Verlag. 2013. p. 11-28. (Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST).
Apreleva, Sofia ; Johnson, Neil F ; Lu, Tsai Ching. / Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events. Complex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers. Vol. 126 LNICST Springer Verlag, 2013. pp. 11-28 (Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST).
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