Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events

Sofia Apreleva, Neil Johnson, Tsai Ching Lu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Progress curves have been used to model the evolution of a wide range of human activities -- from manufacturing to cancer surgery. In each case, the time to complete a given challenging task is found to decrease with successive repetitions, and follows an approximate power law. Recently, it was also employed in connection with the prediction of the escalation of fatal attacks by insurgent groups, with the insurgency "progressing" by continually adapting, while the opposing force tried to counter-adapt. In the present work, we provide the first application of progress curves to financial market events, in order to gain insight into the dynamics underlying significant changes in economic markets, such as stock indices and the currency exchange rate and also examine their use for eventual prediction of such extreme market events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationComplex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers
EditorsKristin Glass, Richard Colbaugh, Jeffrey Tsao, Paul Ormerod
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages11-28
Number of pages18
ISBN (Print)9783319034720
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2013
Event2nd International Conference on Complex Sciences, COMPLEX 2012 - Santa Fe, United States
Duration: Dec 5 2012Dec 7 2012

Publication series

NameLecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST
Volume126 LNICST
ISSN (Print)1867-8211

Other

Other2nd International Conference on Complex Sciences, COMPLEX 2012
CountryUnited States
CitySanta Fe
Period12/5/1212/7/12

Keywords

  • Currency exchange rates
  • Prediction
  • Progress Curve fitting
  • Stock indexes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications

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  • Cite this

    Apreleva, S., Johnson, N., & Lu, T. C. (2013). Progress curves and the prediction of significant market events. In K. Glass, R. Colbaugh, J. Tsao, & P. Ormerod (Eds.), Complex Sciences - 2nd International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Revised Selected Papers (pp. 11-28). (Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST; Vol. 126 LNICST). Springer Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_2