Abstract
Currently, no general measure of population health response to untestable doses of chemicals and microbes has been established that accounts for uncertainty quantitatively and indicates relative toxicity or virulence directly. Untestable doses include those corresponding to the 2.74 × 10-7 illnesses per exposure expressed in goals of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Surface Water Treatment Rule, and doses of human bioterror agents. For example, it is shown that relative Benchmark Dose (BMD) values depend upon the level of confidence assumed. Because of the lack of scientific basis for this level, BMDs are not comparable among health stressors for untestable doses and stressors. In this paper a new predictive Bayesian method is proposed for absolute and relative dose-response assessment based on available information. Information may include toxicological judgment, epidemiological statistics, genetic information, related data, and numeric dose-response data. Results for rotavirus indicate a "safe dose" of 6.3 × 10-7 focus-forming units/exposure, approximately one-half log above the dose corresponding to the maximum risk for any pathogen assuming a 100% infection rate. The result further indicates the limited value of data in refining the assessment, due to the inability of data to reduce variability. The method is suggested for assessing risks of new and existing chemicals and pathogens, as a basis for prioritizing expenditures for protection against environmental and terrorist threats.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 69-78 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Human and Ecological Risk Assessment |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue number | 1 SPEC. ISS. |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Feb 1 2004 |
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Keywords
- Absolute
- Bayesian
- Comparative risk
- Dose-response
- Predictive
- Rotavirus
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Ecological Modeling
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Cite this
Predictive Bayesian dose-response assessment for appraising absolute health risk from available information. / Englehardt, James Douglas.
In: Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, Vol. 10, No. 1 SPEC. ISS., 01.02.2004, p. 69-78.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictive Bayesian dose-response assessment for appraising absolute health risk from available information
AU - Englehardt, James Douglas
PY - 2004/2/1
Y1 - 2004/2/1
N2 - Currently, no general measure of population health response to untestable doses of chemicals and microbes has been established that accounts for uncertainty quantitatively and indicates relative toxicity or virulence directly. Untestable doses include those corresponding to the 2.74 × 10-7 illnesses per exposure expressed in goals of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Surface Water Treatment Rule, and doses of human bioterror agents. For example, it is shown that relative Benchmark Dose (BMD) values depend upon the level of confidence assumed. Because of the lack of scientific basis for this level, BMDs are not comparable among health stressors for untestable doses and stressors. In this paper a new predictive Bayesian method is proposed for absolute and relative dose-response assessment based on available information. Information may include toxicological judgment, epidemiological statistics, genetic information, related data, and numeric dose-response data. Results for rotavirus indicate a "safe dose" of 6.3 × 10-7 focus-forming units/exposure, approximately one-half log above the dose corresponding to the maximum risk for any pathogen assuming a 100% infection rate. The result further indicates the limited value of data in refining the assessment, due to the inability of data to reduce variability. The method is suggested for assessing risks of new and existing chemicals and pathogens, as a basis for prioritizing expenditures for protection against environmental and terrorist threats.
AB - Currently, no general measure of population health response to untestable doses of chemicals and microbes has been established that accounts for uncertainty quantitatively and indicates relative toxicity or virulence directly. Untestable doses include those corresponding to the 2.74 × 10-7 illnesses per exposure expressed in goals of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Surface Water Treatment Rule, and doses of human bioterror agents. For example, it is shown that relative Benchmark Dose (BMD) values depend upon the level of confidence assumed. Because of the lack of scientific basis for this level, BMDs are not comparable among health stressors for untestable doses and stressors. In this paper a new predictive Bayesian method is proposed for absolute and relative dose-response assessment based on available information. Information may include toxicological judgment, epidemiological statistics, genetic information, related data, and numeric dose-response data. Results for rotavirus indicate a "safe dose" of 6.3 × 10-7 focus-forming units/exposure, approximately one-half log above the dose corresponding to the maximum risk for any pathogen assuming a 100% infection rate. The result further indicates the limited value of data in refining the assessment, due to the inability of data to reduce variability. The method is suggested for assessing risks of new and existing chemicals and pathogens, as a basis for prioritizing expenditures for protection against environmental and terrorist threats.
KW - Absolute
KW - Bayesian
KW - Comparative risk
KW - Dose-response
KW - Predictive
KW - Rotavirus
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=1642367264&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=1642367264&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/10807030490280963
DO - 10.1080/10807030490280963
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:1642367264
VL - 10
SP - 69
EP - 78
JO - Human and Ecological Risk Assessment (HERA)
JF - Human and Ecological Risk Assessment (HERA)
SN - 1080-7039
IS - 1 SPEC. ISS.
ER -