Abstract
This article takes a historical perspective to examine technological convergences that occurred throughout the twentieth century in an attempt to gain insights that may be helpful today. It analyzes five case histories where experts predicted that two or more existing technologies would converge to create an entirely new product and market. The cases are studied for their unique points of difference as well as for their commonalities. They lead to the conclusion that despite the confidence and enthusiasm in the forecasts, the convergences typically took decades longer than expected and often materialized in forms that bore little resemblance to the original predictions. Failures occurred for a variety of reasons, ranging from a lack of market acceptance to a waning of one of the original technologies prior to the convergence. The results have implications for businesses and consumers concerned with current predictions of new technological convergences.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 157-168 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Journal of Macromarketing |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jun 2008 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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Keywords
- History
- Innovation
- New products
- Technological convergence
- Technological forecasting
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Marketing
Cite this
Predicting the emergence of innovations from technological convergence : Lessons from the twentieth century. / Schnaars, Steven; Thomas, Gloria; Irmak, Caglar.
In: Journal of Macromarketing, Vol. 28, No. 2, 06.2008, p. 157-168.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting the emergence of innovations from technological convergence
T2 - Lessons from the twentieth century
AU - Schnaars, Steven
AU - Thomas, Gloria
AU - Irmak, Caglar
PY - 2008/6
Y1 - 2008/6
N2 - This article takes a historical perspective to examine technological convergences that occurred throughout the twentieth century in an attempt to gain insights that may be helpful today. It analyzes five case histories where experts predicted that two or more existing technologies would converge to create an entirely new product and market. The cases are studied for their unique points of difference as well as for their commonalities. They lead to the conclusion that despite the confidence and enthusiasm in the forecasts, the convergences typically took decades longer than expected and often materialized in forms that bore little resemblance to the original predictions. Failures occurred for a variety of reasons, ranging from a lack of market acceptance to a waning of one of the original technologies prior to the convergence. The results have implications for businesses and consumers concerned with current predictions of new technological convergences.
AB - This article takes a historical perspective to examine technological convergences that occurred throughout the twentieth century in an attempt to gain insights that may be helpful today. It analyzes five case histories where experts predicted that two or more existing technologies would converge to create an entirely new product and market. The cases are studied for their unique points of difference as well as for their commonalities. They lead to the conclusion that despite the confidence and enthusiasm in the forecasts, the convergences typically took decades longer than expected and often materialized in forms that bore little resemblance to the original predictions. Failures occurred for a variety of reasons, ranging from a lack of market acceptance to a waning of one of the original technologies prior to the convergence. The results have implications for businesses and consumers concerned with current predictions of new technological convergences.
KW - History
KW - Innovation
KW - New products
KW - Technological convergence
KW - Technological forecasting
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=43149100346&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=43149100346&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0276146708314588
DO - 10.1177/0276146708314588
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:43149100346
VL - 28
SP - 157
EP - 168
JO - Journal of Macromarketing
JF - Journal of Macromarketing
SN - 0276-1467
IS - 2
ER -