Predicting incident size from limited information

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Predicting the size of low-probability, high-consequence natural disasters, industrial accidents, and pollutant releases is often difficult due to limitations in the availability of data on rare events and future circumstances. Two Bayesian probability distributions for inferring future incident-size probabilities from limited, indirect, and subjective information are proposed in this paper. The distributions are derived from Pareto distributions that are shown to fit data on different incident types and are justified theoretically. Use of the distributions to predict accumulated oil-spill consequences was demonstrated. -from Author

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationJournal of Environmental Engineering - ASCE
Pages455-464
Number of pages10
Volume121
Edition6
StatePublished - Jan 1 1995

Fingerprint

Oil spills
Disasters
Probability distributions
Accidents
Availability
natural disaster
oil spill
accident
distribution
pollutant

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Engineering(all)
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Environmental Engineering

Cite this

Englehardt, J. D. (1995). Predicting incident size from limited information. In Journal of Environmental Engineering - ASCE (6 ed., Vol. 121, pp. 455-464)

Predicting incident size from limited information. / Englehardt, James Douglas.

Journal of Environmental Engineering - ASCE. Vol. 121 6. ed. 1995. p. 455-464.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Englehardt, JD 1995, Predicting incident size from limited information. in Journal of Environmental Engineering - ASCE. 6 edn, vol. 121, pp. 455-464.
Englehardt JD. Predicting incident size from limited information. In Journal of Environmental Engineering - ASCE. 6 ed. Vol. 121. 1995. p. 455-464
Englehardt, James Douglas. / Predicting incident size from limited information. Journal of Environmental Engineering - ASCE. Vol. 121 6. ed. 1995. pp. 455-464
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