Predicting biodiversity change

Outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Inés Ibáñez, James S. Clark, Michael C. Dietze, Kenneth Feeley, Michelle Hersh, Shannon LaDeau, Allen McBride, Nathan E. Welch, Michael S. Wolosin

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

126 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1896-1906
Number of pages11
JournalEcology
Volume87
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2006
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

species-area relationship
climate change
biodiversity
extinction
prediction
climate
species richness
species diversity
species dispersal
immigration
phenology
vulnerability
persistence
monitoring
habitat
habitats
experiment

Keywords

  • Biodiversity
  • Climate change
  • Climate envelopes
  • Limited source
  • Species-area curves
  • Species-area prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Ibáñez, I., Clark, J. S., Dietze, M. C., Feeley, K., Hersh, M., LaDeau, S., ... Wolosin, M. S. (2006). Predicting biodiversity change: Outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve. Ecology, 87(8), 1896-1906. https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1896:PBCOTC]2.0.CO;2

Predicting biodiversity change : Outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve. / Ibáñez, Inés; Clark, James S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Feeley, Kenneth; Hersh, Michelle; LaDeau, Shannon; McBride, Allen; Welch, Nathan E.; Wolosin, Michael S.

In: Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 8, 01.01.2006, p. 1896-1906.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Ibáñez, I, Clark, JS, Dietze, MC, Feeley, K, Hersh, M, LaDeau, S, McBride, A, Welch, NE & Wolosin, MS 2006, 'Predicting biodiversity change: Outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve', Ecology, vol. 87, no. 8, pp. 1896-1906. https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1896:PBCOTC]2.0.CO;2
Ibáñez, Inés ; Clark, James S. ; Dietze, Michael C. ; Feeley, Kenneth ; Hersh, Michelle ; LaDeau, Shannon ; McBride, Allen ; Welch, Nathan E. ; Wolosin, Michael S. / Predicting biodiversity change : Outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve. In: Ecology. 2006 ; Vol. 87, No. 8. pp. 1896-1906.
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