Predictability of Large Future Changes in a Competitive Evolving Population

D. Lamper, S. D. Howison, N. F. Johnson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (“extreme events”). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system’s global state.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)4
Number of pages1
JournalPhysical Review Letters
Issue number1
StatePublished - 2002

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)


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