Predictability of Large Future Changes in a Competitive Evolving Population

D. Lamper, S. D. Howison, Neil F Johnson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (“extreme events”). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system’s global state.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages1
JournalPhysical Review Letters
Volume88
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2002
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

economics
resources

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Predictability of Large Future Changes in a Competitive Evolving Population. / Lamper, D.; Howison, S. D.; Johnson, Neil F.

In: Physical Review Letters, Vol. 88, No. 1, 01.01.2002.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lamper, D. ; Howison, S. D. ; Johnson, Neil F. / Predictability of Large Future Changes in a Competitive Evolving Population. In: Physical Review Letters. 2002 ; Vol. 88, No. 1.
@article{3332bf271b474f83a33bf2e9dfe7ccce,
title = "Predictability of Large Future Changes in a Competitive Evolving Population",
abstract = "The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (“extreme events”). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system’s global state.",
author = "D. Lamper and Howison, {S. D.} and Johnson, {Neil F}",
year = "2002",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.017902",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "88",
journal = "Physical Review Letters",
issn = "0031-9007",
publisher = "American Physical Society",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predictability of Large Future Changes in a Competitive Evolving Population

AU - Lamper, D.

AU - Howison, S. D.

AU - Johnson, Neil F

PY - 2002/1/1

Y1 - 2002/1/1

N2 - The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (“extreme events”). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system’s global state.

AB - The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (“extreme events”). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system’s global state.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85038303802&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85038303802&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.017902

DO - 10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.017902

M3 - Article

VL - 88

JO - Physical Review Letters

JF - Physical Review Letters

SN - 0031-9007

IS - 1

ER -