Population abundance and size-structure of an eastern tropical pacific reef coral after the 1997-98 ENSO: A simulation model predicts field measures

P. Fong, P. W. Glynn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Abundance and size structure of two populations of the massive reef coral Gardineroseris planulata in non-upwelling (Uva Island reef in the Gulf of Panama) and upwelling (Pearl Island reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí) environments affected by the 1997-98 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event were measured in May 1999. A dynamic simulation model was used to predict changes in abundance and size structure of these two populations, and predictions were compared to field measures. The model is based on 25 yrs of field data of coral growth, recruitment, predation effects by Acanthaster planci, and mortality associated with the 1982-83 ENSO event. Despite significant differences in the regional patterns of warming between the two ENSO events, the simulation model was able to predict with high accuracy coral abundances and size structures for both populations. Intensity of the 1982-83 ENSO was greater in the Pearl Islands than at Uva Island; in 1997-98, the pattern was reversed. Coral mortality rates also reversed between these two events, with much higher mortality of colonies in the Pearl Islands in 1982-83 and at Uva Island in 1997-98. G-tests found no significant differences in population size-structure between model predictions and field measurements. This independent validation of the model suggests that the model incorporates the major ecological processes controlling population growth and structure of this coral species. In addition, these results suggest that the rate of SST increase during an ENSO event is a key predictor of mortality for this species of coral.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)187-202
Number of pages16
JournalBulletin of Marine Science
Volume69
Issue number1
StatePublished - Nov 20 2001

Fingerprint

Southern Oscillation
size structure
coral reefs
coral reef
oscillation
simulation models
corals
coral
pearls
simulation
mortality
reefs
population structure
reef
Acanthaster planci
prediction
regional pattern
model validation
Panama
dynamic models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aquatic Science
  • Oceanography

Cite this

Population abundance and size-structure of an eastern tropical pacific reef coral after the 1997-98 ENSO : A simulation model predicts field measures. / Fong, P.; Glynn, P. W.

In: Bulletin of Marine Science, Vol. 69, No. 1, 20.11.2001, p. 187-202.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{83a6e8b402c6464f8eb12ebb05dc36d3,
title = "Population abundance and size-structure of an eastern tropical pacific reef coral after the 1997-98 ENSO: A simulation model predicts field measures",
abstract = "Abundance and size structure of two populations of the massive reef coral Gardineroseris planulata in non-upwelling (Uva Island reef in the Gulf of Panama) and upwelling (Pearl Island reefs in the Gulf of Chiriqu{\'i}) environments affected by the 1997-98 El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event were measured in May 1999. A dynamic simulation model was used to predict changes in abundance and size structure of these two populations, and predictions were compared to field measures. The model is based on 25 yrs of field data of coral growth, recruitment, predation effects by Acanthaster planci, and mortality associated with the 1982-83 ENSO event. Despite significant differences in the regional patterns of warming between the two ENSO events, the simulation model was able to predict with high accuracy coral abundances and size structures for both populations. Intensity of the 1982-83 ENSO was greater in the Pearl Islands than at Uva Island; in 1997-98, the pattern was reversed. Coral mortality rates also reversed between these two events, with much higher mortality of colonies in the Pearl Islands in 1982-83 and at Uva Island in 1997-98. G-tests found no significant differences in population size-structure between model predictions and field measurements. This independent validation of the model suggests that the model incorporates the major ecological processes controlling population growth and structure of this coral species. In addition, these results suggest that the rate of SST increase during an ENSO event is a key predictor of mortality for this species of coral.",
author = "P. Fong and Glynn, {P. W.}",
year = "2001",
month = "11",
day = "20",
language = "English",
volume = "69",
pages = "187--202",
journal = "Bulletin of Marine Science",
issn = "0007-4977",
publisher = "Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Population abundance and size-structure of an eastern tropical pacific reef coral after the 1997-98 ENSO

T2 - A simulation model predicts field measures

AU - Fong, P.

AU - Glynn, P. W.

PY - 2001/11/20

Y1 - 2001/11/20

N2 - Abundance and size structure of two populations of the massive reef coral Gardineroseris planulata in non-upwelling (Uva Island reef in the Gulf of Panama) and upwelling (Pearl Island reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí) environments affected by the 1997-98 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event were measured in May 1999. A dynamic simulation model was used to predict changes in abundance and size structure of these two populations, and predictions were compared to field measures. The model is based on 25 yrs of field data of coral growth, recruitment, predation effects by Acanthaster planci, and mortality associated with the 1982-83 ENSO event. Despite significant differences in the regional patterns of warming between the two ENSO events, the simulation model was able to predict with high accuracy coral abundances and size structures for both populations. Intensity of the 1982-83 ENSO was greater in the Pearl Islands than at Uva Island; in 1997-98, the pattern was reversed. Coral mortality rates also reversed between these two events, with much higher mortality of colonies in the Pearl Islands in 1982-83 and at Uva Island in 1997-98. G-tests found no significant differences in population size-structure between model predictions and field measurements. This independent validation of the model suggests that the model incorporates the major ecological processes controlling population growth and structure of this coral species. In addition, these results suggest that the rate of SST increase during an ENSO event is a key predictor of mortality for this species of coral.

AB - Abundance and size structure of two populations of the massive reef coral Gardineroseris planulata in non-upwelling (Uva Island reef in the Gulf of Panama) and upwelling (Pearl Island reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí) environments affected by the 1997-98 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event were measured in May 1999. A dynamic simulation model was used to predict changes in abundance and size structure of these two populations, and predictions were compared to field measures. The model is based on 25 yrs of field data of coral growth, recruitment, predation effects by Acanthaster planci, and mortality associated with the 1982-83 ENSO event. Despite significant differences in the regional patterns of warming between the two ENSO events, the simulation model was able to predict with high accuracy coral abundances and size structures for both populations. Intensity of the 1982-83 ENSO was greater in the Pearl Islands than at Uva Island; in 1997-98, the pattern was reversed. Coral mortality rates also reversed between these two events, with much higher mortality of colonies in the Pearl Islands in 1982-83 and at Uva Island in 1997-98. G-tests found no significant differences in population size-structure between model predictions and field measurements. This independent validation of the model suggests that the model incorporates the major ecological processes controlling population growth and structure of this coral species. In addition, these results suggest that the rate of SST increase during an ENSO event is a key predictor of mortality for this species of coral.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0034761827&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0034761827&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0034761827

VL - 69

SP - 187

EP - 202

JO - Bulletin of Marine Science

JF - Bulletin of Marine Science

SN - 0007-4977

IS - 1

ER -