Pattern in escalations in insurgent and terrorist activity

Neil Johnson, Spencer Carran, Joel Botner, Kyle Fontaine, Nathan Laxague, Philip Nuetzel, Jessica Turnley, Brian Tivnan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

63 Scopus citations

Abstract

In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)81-84
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume333
Issue number6038
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2011

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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