Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales

Sang Wook Yeh, Benjamin Kirtman, Jong Seong Kug, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif

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Abstract

There is an evidence of the increasing intensity as well as occurrence frequency of the so-called central Pacific (CP) El Niño events since the 1990s. We examine whether such an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño may be a manifestation of natural climate variability. A control simulation of the Kiel Climate Model, run for 4200 years with the present values of greenhouse gases, exhibit large variations of the occurrence frequency of the CP El Niño versus the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. A model simulates to some extent changes in the occurrence ratio of CP and EP El Niño in comparison with the observations. Therefore, we can not exclude the possibility that an increasing of occurrence frequency of CP El Niño during recent decades in the observation could be a part of natural variability in the tropical climate system.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL02704
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume38
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2011

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climate modeling
greenhouse gas
occurrences
timescale
climate
simulation
control simulation
climate models
greenhouses
comparison
tropical climate
gases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Geophysics

Cite this

Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales. / Yeh, Sang Wook; Kirtman, Benjamin; Kug, Jong Seong; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, No. 2, L02704, 2011.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Yeh, Sang Wook ; Kirtman, Benjamin ; Kug, Jong Seong ; Park, Wonsun ; Latif, Mojib. / Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2011 ; Vol. 38, No. 2.
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