Modeling uncertainty in preliminary design: A short review

A. C. Butler, G. R. Coates, S. S. Rao, F. Sadeghi, S. R. LeClair

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Several mathematical theories exist for modeling uncertainty, and this paper explores the use of three different techniques for modeling judgment in preliminary engineering design. The relative advantages and disadvantages of each theory are discussed from an applied perspective based on experience with prototype systems. These techniques include the Dempster-Shafer theory, Bayesian Belief Networks, and Fuzzy Systems. Additionally, the relative merits and limitations of each technique are discussed in a qualitative manner drawing on experience gained with each model. Conclusions are drawn about the effectiveness of these techniques for representing uncertainly in preliminary engineering design.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication11th Biennial Conference on Reliability, Stress Analysis, and Failure Prevention; 7th International Conference on Design Theory and Methodology; JSME Symposium on Design and Production; Mechanical Design Education and History; Computer-Integrated Concurrent Design Conference
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Pages371-388
Number of pages18
ISBN (Electronic)9780791817179
DOIs
StatePublished - 1995
EventASME 1995 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, DETC 1995, collocated with the ASME 1995 15th International Computers in Engineering Conference and the ASME 1995 9th Annual Engineering Database Symposium - Boston, United States
Duration: Sep 17 1995Sep 20 1995

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
Volume2

Conference

ConferenceASME 1995 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, DETC 1995, collocated with the ASME 1995 15th International Computers in Engineering Conference and the ASME 1995 9th Annual Engineering Database Symposium
CountryUnited States
CityBoston
Period9/17/959/20/95

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Modeling and Simulation

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