Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Rabies for Dog, Chinese Ferret Badger and Human Interactions in Zhejiang Province, China

Jicai Huang, Shigui Ruan, Yaqin Shu, Xiao Wu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Human rabies is one of the major public health problems in China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. In recent years, the number of wildlife-associated human rabies cases has increased, particularly in the southeast and northeast regions of mainland China. Chinese ferret badgers (CFBs) are one of the most popular wildlife animals which are distributed mostly in the southeast region of China. Human cases caused by rabid CFB were first recorded in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, in 1994. From 1996 to 2004, more than 30 human cases were caused by CFB bites in Zhejiang Province. In this paper, based on the reported data of the human rabies caused by both dogs and CFB in Zhejiang Province, we propose a multi-host zoonotic model for the dog–CFB–human transmission of rabies. We first evaluate the basic reproduction number R0, discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and study persistence of the disease. Then we use our model to fit the reported data in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2017 and forecast the trend of human or livestock rabies. Finally by carrying out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of parameters, we find that the transmission between dogs and CFB, the quantity of dogs, and the vaccination rate of dogs play important roles in the transmission of rabies. Our study suggests that rabies control and prevention strategies should include enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, increasing dog vaccination rate, reducing the dog and CFB interactions, and avoiding CFB bites or contact.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalBulletin of Mathematical Biology
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - Jan 1 2018

Fingerprint

rabies
Mustelidae
Ferrets
Rabies
China
Dogs
dogs
Interaction
Modeling
modeling
Public health
Bites and Stings
Medical problems
Basic Reproduction number
Basic Reproduction Number
Vaccination
Agriculture
Sensitivity analysis
Animals
vaccination

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • Chinese ferret badgers
  • Multi-host zoonotic SEIR model
  • Rabies
  • Vaccination

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience(all)
  • Immunology
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Pharmacology
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics

Cite this

@article{37b9a75a10f445aab3ab3311d5f83321,
title = "Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Rabies for Dog, Chinese Ferret Badger and Human Interactions in Zhejiang Province, China",
abstract = "Human rabies is one of the major public health problems in China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95{\%} of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. In recent years, the number of wildlife-associated human rabies cases has increased, particularly in the southeast and northeast regions of mainland China. Chinese ferret badgers (CFBs) are one of the most popular wildlife animals which are distributed mostly in the southeast region of China. Human cases caused by rabid CFB were first recorded in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, in 1994. From 1996 to 2004, more than 30 human cases were caused by CFB bites in Zhejiang Province. In this paper, based on the reported data of the human rabies caused by both dogs and CFB in Zhejiang Province, we propose a multi-host zoonotic model for the dog–CFB–human transmission of rabies. We first evaluate the basic reproduction number R0, discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and study persistence of the disease. Then we use our model to fit the reported data in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2017 and forecast the trend of human or livestock rabies. Finally by carrying out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of parameters, we find that the transmission between dogs and CFB, the quantity of dogs, and the vaccination rate of dogs play important roles in the transmission of rabies. Our study suggests that rabies control and prevention strategies should include enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, increasing dog vaccination rate, reducing the dog and CFB interactions, and avoiding CFB bites or contact.",
keywords = "Basic reproduction number, Chinese ferret badgers, Multi-host zoonotic SEIR model, Rabies, Vaccination",
author = "Jicai Huang and Shigui Ruan and Yaqin Shu and Xiao Wu",
year = "2018",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s11538-018-00537-1",
language = "English (US)",
journal = "Bulletin of Mathematical Biology",
issn = "0092-8240",
publisher = "Springer New York",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Rabies for Dog, Chinese Ferret Badger and Human Interactions in Zhejiang Province, China

AU - Huang, Jicai

AU - Ruan, Shigui

AU - Shu, Yaqin

AU - Wu, Xiao

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - Human rabies is one of the major public health problems in China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. In recent years, the number of wildlife-associated human rabies cases has increased, particularly in the southeast and northeast regions of mainland China. Chinese ferret badgers (CFBs) are one of the most popular wildlife animals which are distributed mostly in the southeast region of China. Human cases caused by rabid CFB were first recorded in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, in 1994. From 1996 to 2004, more than 30 human cases were caused by CFB bites in Zhejiang Province. In this paper, based on the reported data of the human rabies caused by both dogs and CFB in Zhejiang Province, we propose a multi-host zoonotic model for the dog–CFB–human transmission of rabies. We first evaluate the basic reproduction number R0, discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and study persistence of the disease. Then we use our model to fit the reported data in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2017 and forecast the trend of human or livestock rabies. Finally by carrying out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of parameters, we find that the transmission between dogs and CFB, the quantity of dogs, and the vaccination rate of dogs play important roles in the transmission of rabies. Our study suggests that rabies control and prevention strategies should include enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, increasing dog vaccination rate, reducing the dog and CFB interactions, and avoiding CFB bites or contact.

AB - Human rabies is one of the major public health problems in China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. In recent years, the number of wildlife-associated human rabies cases has increased, particularly in the southeast and northeast regions of mainland China. Chinese ferret badgers (CFBs) are one of the most popular wildlife animals which are distributed mostly in the southeast region of China. Human cases caused by rabid CFB were first recorded in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, in 1994. From 1996 to 2004, more than 30 human cases were caused by CFB bites in Zhejiang Province. In this paper, based on the reported data of the human rabies caused by both dogs and CFB in Zhejiang Province, we propose a multi-host zoonotic model for the dog–CFB–human transmission of rabies. We first evaluate the basic reproduction number R0, discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and study persistence of the disease. Then we use our model to fit the reported data in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2017 and forecast the trend of human or livestock rabies. Finally by carrying out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of parameters, we find that the transmission between dogs and CFB, the quantity of dogs, and the vaccination rate of dogs play important roles in the transmission of rabies. Our study suggests that rabies control and prevention strategies should include enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, increasing dog vaccination rate, reducing the dog and CFB interactions, and avoiding CFB bites or contact.

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - Chinese ferret badgers

KW - Multi-host zoonotic SEIR model

KW - Rabies

KW - Vaccination

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85058215791&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85058215791&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s11538-018-00537-1

DO - 10.1007/s11538-018-00537-1

M3 - Article

C2 - 30536160

AN - SCOPUS:85058215791

JO - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

JF - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

SN - 0092-8240

ER -