Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt

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18 Scopus citations

Abstract

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that harms both human health and livestock production. It is believed that RVF in Egypt has been repeatedly introduced by the importation of infected animals from Sudan. In this paper, we propose a three-patch model for the process by which animals enter Egypt from Sudan, are moved up the Nile, and then consumed at population centers. The basic reproduction number for each patch is introduced and then the threshold dynamics of the model are established. We simulate an interesting scenario showing a possible explanation of the observed phenomenon of the geographic spread of RVF in Egypt.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)523-542
Number of pages20
JournalBulletin of Mathematical Biology
Volume75
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • Egypt
  • Patch model
  • Rift Valley fever
  • Threshold dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience(all)
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Pharmacology
  • Immunology
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)

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