Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that harms both human health and livestock production. It is believed that RVF in Egypt has been repeatedly introduced by the importation of infected animals from Sudan. In this paper, we propose a three-patch model for the process by which animals enter Egypt from Sudan, are moved up the Nile, and then consumed at population centers. The basic reproduction number for each patch is introduced and then the threshold dynamics of the model are established. We simulate an interesting scenario showing a possible explanation of the observed phenomenon of the geographic spread of RVF in Egypt.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)523-542
Number of pages20
JournalBulletin of Mathematical Biology
Volume75
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 11 2013

Fingerprint

Rift Valley Fever
Rift Valley fever
Egypt
rift zone
Patch
Animals
Sudan
Basic Reproduction number
Basic Reproduction Number
Modeling
Agriculture
modeling
Health
Middle East
animal
livestock farming
Zoonoses
Livestock
livestock production
zoonoses

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • Egypt
  • Patch model
  • Rift Valley fever
  • Threshold dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience(all)
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Pharmacology
  • Immunology
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt. / Gao, Daozhou; Cosner, George; Cantrell, Robert; Beier, John C; Ruan, Shigui.

In: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 75, No. 3, 11.02.2013, p. 523-542.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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