Modeling the importation and local transmission of vector-borne diseases in Florida: The case of Zika outbreak in 2016

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses are all transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito species, had been imported to Florida and caused local outbreaks. We propose a deterministic model to study the importation and local transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. The purpose is to model and mimic the importation of these viruses to Florida via travelers, local infections in domestic mosquitoes by imported travelers, and finally non-travel related transmissions to local humans by infected local mosquitoes. As a case study, the model will be used to simulate the accumulative Zika cases in Florida. Since the disease system is driven by a continuing input of infections from outside sources, orthodox analytic methods based on the calculation of the basic reproduction number are inadequate to describe and predict their behavior. Via steady-state analysis and sensitivity analysis, effective control and prevention measures for these mosquito-borne diseases are tested.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)342-356
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume455
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 14 2018

Keywords

  • Chikungunya
  • Dengue
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Mosquito-borne diseases
  • Sensitive analysis
  • Transmission dynamics
  • Zika

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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