Modeling the importation and local transmission of vector-borne diseases in Florida: The case of Zika outbreak in 2016

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2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses are all transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito species, had been imported to Florida and caused local outbreaks. We propose a deterministic model to study the importation and local transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. The purpose is to model and mimic the importation of these viruses to Florida via travelers, local infections in domestic mosquitoes by imported travelers, and finally non-travel related transmissions to local humans by infected local mosquitoes. As a case study, the model will be used to simulate the accumulative Zika cases in Florida. Since the disease system is driven by a continuing input of infections from outside sources, orthodox analytic methods based on the calculation of the basic reproduction number are inadequate to describe and predict their behavior. Via steady-state analysis and sensitivity analysis, effective control and prevention measures for these mosquito-borne diseases are tested.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)342-356
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume455
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 14 2018

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Disease Vectors
vector-borne diseases
Culicidae
mosquito-borne diseases
Disease Outbreaks
Zika virus
Viruses
Chikungunya virus
Modeling
Aedes
Dengue virus
Aedes albopictus
Virus
Infection
Aedes aegypti
infection
Basic Reproduction Number
Sensitivity analysis
Steady-state Analysis
Dengue Virus

Keywords

  • Chikungunya
  • Dengue
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Mosquito-borne diseases
  • Sensitive analysis
  • Transmission dynamics
  • Zika

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

Cite this

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title = "Modeling the importation and local transmission of vector-borne diseases in Florida: The case of Zika outbreak in 2016",
abstract = "Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses are all transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito species, had been imported to Florida and caused local outbreaks. We propose a deterministic model to study the importation and local transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. The purpose is to model and mimic the importation of these viruses to Florida via travelers, local infections in domestic mosquitoes by imported travelers, and finally non-travel related transmissions to local humans by infected local mosquitoes. As a case study, the model will be used to simulate the accumulative Zika cases in Florida. Since the disease system is driven by a continuing input of infections from outside sources, orthodox analytic methods based on the calculation of the basic reproduction number are inadequate to describe and predict their behavior. Via steady-state analysis and sensitivity analysis, effective control and prevention measures for these mosquito-borne diseases are tested.",
keywords = "Chikungunya, Dengue, Mathematical modeling, Mosquito-borne diseases, Sensitive analysis, Transmission dynamics, Zika",
author = "Jing Chen and Beier, {John C} and Robert Cantrell and George Cosner and Douglas Fuller and Yongtao Guan and Guoyan Zhang and Shigui Ruan",
year = "2018",
month = "10",
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language = "English (US)",
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T1 - Modeling the importation and local transmission of vector-borne diseases in Florida

T2 - The case of Zika outbreak in 2016

AU - Chen, Jing

AU - Beier, John C

AU - Cantrell, Robert

AU - Cosner, George

AU - Fuller, Douglas

AU - Guan, Yongtao

AU - Zhang, Guoyan

AU - Ruan, Shigui

PY - 2018/10/14

Y1 - 2018/10/14

N2 - Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses are all transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito species, had been imported to Florida and caused local outbreaks. We propose a deterministic model to study the importation and local transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. The purpose is to model and mimic the importation of these viruses to Florida via travelers, local infections in domestic mosquitoes by imported travelers, and finally non-travel related transmissions to local humans by infected local mosquitoes. As a case study, the model will be used to simulate the accumulative Zika cases in Florida. Since the disease system is driven by a continuing input of infections from outside sources, orthodox analytic methods based on the calculation of the basic reproduction number are inadequate to describe and predict their behavior. Via steady-state analysis and sensitivity analysis, effective control and prevention measures for these mosquito-borne diseases are tested.

AB - Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses are all transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito species, had been imported to Florida and caused local outbreaks. We propose a deterministic model to study the importation and local transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. The purpose is to model and mimic the importation of these viruses to Florida via travelers, local infections in domestic mosquitoes by imported travelers, and finally non-travel related transmissions to local humans by infected local mosquitoes. As a case study, the model will be used to simulate the accumulative Zika cases in Florida. Since the disease system is driven by a continuing input of infections from outside sources, orthodox analytic methods based on the calculation of the basic reproduction number are inadequate to describe and predict their behavior. Via steady-state analysis and sensitivity analysis, effective control and prevention measures for these mosquito-borne diseases are tested.

KW - Chikungunya

KW - Dengue

KW - Mathematical modeling

KW - Mosquito-borne diseases

KW - Sensitive analysis

KW - Transmission dynamics

KW - Zika

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