Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability

William F. Morris, Catherine A. Pfister, Shripad Tuljapurkar, Chirrakal V. Haridas, Carol L. Boggs, Mark S. Boyce, Emilio M. Bruna, Don R. Church, Tim Coulson, Daniel F. Doak, Stacey Forsyth, Jean Michel Gaillard, Carol C Horvitz, Susan Kalisz, Bruce E. Kendall, Tiffany M. Knight, Charlotte T. Lee, Eric S. Menges

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

251 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Both means and year-to-year variances of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are predicted to change. However, the potential impact of changing climatic variability on the fate of populations has been largely unexamined. We analyzed multiyear demographic data for 36 plant and animal species with a broad range of life histories and types of environment to ask how sensitive their long-term stochastic population growth rates are likely to be to changes in the means and standard deviations of vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth) in response to changing climate. We quantified responsiveness using elasticities of the long-term population growth rate predicted by stochastic projection matrix models. Short-lived species (insects and annual plants and algae) are predicted to be more strongly (and negatively) affected by increasing vital rate variability relative to longer-lived species (perennial plants, birds, ungulates). Taxonomic affiliation has little power to explain sensitivity to increasing variability once longevity has been taken into account. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of short-lived species to an increasingly variable climate, but also suggest that problems associated with short-lived undesirable species (agricultural pests, disease vectors, invasive weedy plants) may be exacerbated in regions where climate variability decreases.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19-25
Number of pages7
JournalEcology
Volume89
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2008

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buffers
climate
algae
population growth
animals
disease vector
disease vectors
perennial plant
annual plant
ungulate
elasticity (mechanics)
ungulates
elasticity
vulnerability
life history
demographic statistics
survival rate
alga
climate change
pests

Keywords

  • Climate variability
  • Elasticity
  • Longevity
  • Stochastic demography

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology

Cite this

Morris, W. F., Pfister, C. A., Tuljapurkar, S., Haridas, C. V., Boggs, C. L., Boyce, M. S., ... Menges, E. S. (2008). Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. Ecology, 89(1), 19-25. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0774.1

Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. / Morris, William F.; Pfister, Catherine A.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Haridas, Chirrakal V.; Boggs, Carol L.; Boyce, Mark S.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Church, Don R.; Coulson, Tim; Doak, Daniel F.; Forsyth, Stacey; Gaillard, Jean Michel; Horvitz, Carol C; Kalisz, Susan; Kendall, Bruce E.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lee, Charlotte T.; Menges, Eric S.

In: Ecology, Vol. 89, No. 1, 01.01.2008, p. 19-25.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Morris, WF, Pfister, CA, Tuljapurkar, S, Haridas, CV, Boggs, CL, Boyce, MS, Bruna, EM, Church, DR, Coulson, T, Doak, DF, Forsyth, S, Gaillard, JM, Horvitz, CC, Kalisz, S, Kendall, BE, Knight, TM, Lee, CT & Menges, ES 2008, 'Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability', Ecology, vol. 89, no. 1, pp. 19-25. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0774.1
Morris WF, Pfister CA, Tuljapurkar S, Haridas CV, Boggs CL, Boyce MS et al. Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. Ecology. 2008 Jan 1;89(1):19-25. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0774.1
Morris, William F. ; Pfister, Catherine A. ; Tuljapurkar, Shripad ; Haridas, Chirrakal V. ; Boggs, Carol L. ; Boyce, Mark S. ; Bruna, Emilio M. ; Church, Don R. ; Coulson, Tim ; Doak, Daniel F. ; Forsyth, Stacey ; Gaillard, Jean Michel ; Horvitz, Carol C ; Kalisz, Susan ; Kendall, Bruce E. ; Knight, Tiffany M. ; Lee, Charlotte T. ; Menges, Eric S. / Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. In: Ecology. 2008 ; Vol. 89, No. 1. pp. 19-25.
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