Abstract
A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1018-1021 |
| Number of pages | 4 |
| Journal | Science |
| Volume | 327 |
| Issue number | 5968 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Feb 19 2010 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General
Cite this
Limits of predictability in human mobility. / Song, Chaoming; Qu, Zehui; Blumm, Nicholas; Barabási, Albert László.
In: Science, Vol. 327, No. 5968, 19.02.2010, p. 1018-1021.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Limits of predictability in human mobility
AU - Song, Chaoming
AU - Qu, Zehui
AU - Blumm, Nicholas
AU - Barabási, Albert László
PY - 2010/2/19
Y1 - 2010/2/19
N2 - A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.
AB - A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77149139158&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77149139158&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1126/science.1177170
DO - 10.1126/science.1177170
M3 - Article
C2 - 20167789
AN - SCOPUS:77149139158
VL - 327
SP - 1018
EP - 1021
JO - Science
JF - Science
SN - 0036-8075
IS - 5968
ER -