TY - JOUR
T1 - Lagrangian simulation of oil trajectories in the Florida Straits
AU - Drouin, K. L.
AU - Mariano, A. J.
AU - Ryan, E. H.
AU - Laurindo, L. C.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was made possible by a grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative . Our appreciation extends to Dr. Patrick Hogan from the Naval Research Laboratory, who kindly provided us with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) fields. We thank Bradford Benggio from NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration for his insight on previous modeling work, and for sharing output from the Trajectory Analysis Planner (TAP) - Florida Straits' edition with us. We are particularly grateful for the valuable advice and constructive comments from Dr. Donald Olson and Dr. William Johns from the University of Miami, and one anonymous reviewer. Data are publicly available through the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative Information & Data Cooperative (GRIIDC) at https://data.gulfresearchinitiative.org / (DOI: 10.7266/n7-62t6-6p82 ; 10.7266/n7-tvm2-7b13 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2019/3
Y1 - 2019/3
N2 - A Lagrangian floating oil trajectory model is developed to simulate a continuous surface spill in the Florida Straits. The trajectories are initiated at locations representative of exploratory drilling sites around Cuba's Exclusive Economic Zone and integrated for ten days. The simulation is initialized for different seasons, using leeway-corrected observed winds, ocean currents, different climatologies, and a first-order Markov Lagrangian Stochastic Model. A Monte-Carlo scheme is used to parameterize oil weathering processes collectively. Overall, the simulations exhibit a strong seasonal dependence, where the Florida coast is most affected during the summer and the Cuban coast in the winter. Drilling sites at the center of the Straits show the largest impact on Florida. Cuba is most affected by shoreline locations. A significant amount of oil reaches the Florida coastline within two to ten days, and Cuba is potentially affected within hours. Many simulations project impacts for the Florida Keys, South Florida, and the north shore of Cuba.
AB - A Lagrangian floating oil trajectory model is developed to simulate a continuous surface spill in the Florida Straits. The trajectories are initiated at locations representative of exploratory drilling sites around Cuba's Exclusive Economic Zone and integrated for ten days. The simulation is initialized for different seasons, using leeway-corrected observed winds, ocean currents, different climatologies, and a first-order Markov Lagrangian Stochastic Model. A Monte-Carlo scheme is used to parameterize oil weathering processes collectively. Overall, the simulations exhibit a strong seasonal dependence, where the Florida coast is most affected during the summer and the Cuban coast in the winter. Drilling sites at the center of the Straits show the largest impact on Florida. Cuba is most affected by shoreline locations. A significant amount of oil reaches the Florida coastline within two to ten days, and Cuba is potentially affected within hours. Many simulations project impacts for the Florida Keys, South Florida, and the north shore of Cuba.
KW - Cuban offshore drilling
KW - Florida Straits oil spill
KW - Lagrangian trajectories
KW - Monte-Carlo weathering scheme
KW - Oil spill modeling
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U2 - 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.01.031
DO - 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.01.031
M3 - Article
C2 - 30803636
AN - SCOPUS:85060552174
VL - 140
SP - 204
EP - 218
JO - Marine Pollution Bulletin
JF - Marine Pollution Bulletin
SN - 0025-326X
ER -