Issues and challenges with using ensemble-based prediction to probe the weather-climate interface

Experts share their views on the issues and challenges with using ensemble-based prediction to probe the weather-climate interface. They focus on predictability of the weather?climate interface, specifically aiming to determine how the operational community can deliver useful products with calibrated uncertainty at the intraseasonal to interannual (ISI) time scales using multi-model global Earth system ensembles. They provide information that is readily evaluated using the current observation network, which can be easily presented in calibrated probabilistic terms. They also deliver assessments based on the model?s ability to reproduce broad climate characteristics, but with little ability to quantify uncertainty.