Issues and challenges with using ensemble-based prediction to probe the weather-climate interface

Bruce Cornuelle, James Hansen, Benjamin Kirtman, Scott Sandgathe, Steve Warren

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Experts share their views on the issues and challenges with using ensemble-based prediction to probe the weather-climate interface. They focus on predictability of the weather?climate interface, specifically aiming to determine how the operational community can deliver useful products with calibrated uncertainty at the intraseasonal to interannual (ISI) time scales using multi-model global Earth system ensembles. They provide information that is readily evaluated using the current observation network, which can be easily presented in calibrated probabilistic terms. They also deliver assessments based on the model?s ability to reproduce broad climate characteristics, but with little ability to quantify uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)213-215
Number of pages3
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume95
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2014

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Issues and challenges with using ensemble-based prediction to probe the weather-climate interface'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this