Intra-day behavior of treasury sector index option implied volatilities around macroeconomic announcements

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

If option implied volatility is an unbiased, efficient forecast of future return volatility in the underlying asset, then we should be able to predict its path around macroeconomic announcements from responses in cash markets. Regressions show that volatilities rise the afternoon before announcements that move cash markets, and that post-announcement volatilities return to normal as rapidly as cash prices do. Although implied volatilities are predictable, the Treasury options market is efficient since informed traders do not earn arbitrage profits once we account for trading costs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)161-177
Number of pages17
JournalFinancial Review
Volume38
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2003

Keywords

  • Implied volatility
  • Macroeconomic announcements
  • Market efficiency

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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