Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance

C. A. Reynolds, M. S. Peng, S. J. Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, R. Buizza

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review


As noted in M2006, there are considerable differences in the targeting products produced using TESV and ETKF methods. When the targets are remote from the storm, the TESVs usually indicate targets northwest of the storm, often associated with an upstream trough, while the ETKF targets are far more likely to occur northeast of the storm, over the Northern North Atlantic. While the ETKF techniques often produce targets that are significantly different than those based purely on 48-h ensemble spread, they are nonetheless constrained by ensemble characteristics, specifically the estimate of analysis error covariance produced by the 48-h ensemble, which often has maximum variance over the northern North Atlantic. Unlike the ETKF techniques, the "dynamics only" TESV method is not designed to consider spatial differences in the likely analysis errors (e.g., relatively small over land and large over oceans). Constraining the SV calculation using estimated analysis error variances results in a shift of the target areas away from well-observed regions, such as the eastern US. However, each analysis error estimate has different liabilities. The NAVDAS estimate currently has no flow-dependent component. The ETKF estimates are constrained by the ensemble construction methods. Data denial experiments are planned to examine the impact of data in target regions on the forecast error.

Original languageEnglish (US)
StatePublished - Dec 1 2006
Event27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology - Monterey, CA, United States
Duration: Apr 24 2006Apr 26 2006


Other27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityMonterey, CA

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Global and Planetary Change


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