Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance

C. A. Reynolds, M. S. Peng, Sharanya J Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, R. Buizza

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

As noted in M2006, there are considerable differences in the targeting products produced using TESV and ETKF methods. When the targets are remote from the storm, the TESVs usually indicate targets northwest of the storm, often associated with an upstream trough, while the ETKF targets are far more likely to occur northeast of the storm, over the Northern North Atlantic. While the ETKF techniques often produce targets that are significantly different than those based purely on 48-h ensemble spread, they are nonetheless constrained by ensemble characteristics, specifically the estimate of analysis error covariance produced by the 48-h ensemble, which often has maximum variance over the northern North Atlantic. Unlike the ETKF techniques, the "dynamics only" TESV method is not designed to consider spatial differences in the likely analysis errors (e.g., relatively small over land and large over oceans). Constraining the SV calculation using estimated analysis error variances results in a shift of the target areas away from well-observed regions, such as the eastern US. However, each analysis error estimate has different liabilities. The NAVDAS estimate currently has no flow-dependent component. The ETKF estimates are constrained by the ensemble construction methods. Data denial experiments are planned to examine the impact of data in target regions on the forecast error.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
StatePublished - 2006
Event27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology - Monterey, CA, United States
Duration: Apr 24 2006Apr 26 2006

Other

Other27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
CountryUnited States
CityMonterey, CA
Period4/24/064/26/06

Fingerprint

error analysis
tropical cyclone
Error analysis
targeting
construction method
liability
trough
ocean
experiment
Experiments
method

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Global and Planetary Change

Cite this

Reynolds, C. A., Peng, M. S., Majumdar, S. J., Aberson, S. D., Bishop, C. H., & Buizza, R. (2006). Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance. In 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance. / Reynolds, C. A.; Peng, M. S.; Majumdar, Sharanya J; Aberson, S. D.; Bishop, C. H.; Buizza, R.

27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 2006.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Reynolds, CA, Peng, MS, Majumdar, SJ, Aberson, SD, Bishop, CH & Buizza, R 2006, Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance. in 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, 4/24/06.
Reynolds CA, Peng MS, Majumdar SJ, Aberson SD, Bishop CH, Buizza R. Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance. In 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 2006
Reynolds, C. A. ; Peng, M. S. ; Majumdar, Sharanya J ; Aberson, S. D. ; Bishop, C. H. ; Buizza, R. / Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance. 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 2006.
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AU - Buizza, R.

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N2 - As noted in M2006, there are considerable differences in the targeting products produced using TESV and ETKF methods. When the targets are remote from the storm, the TESVs usually indicate targets northwest of the storm, often associated with an upstream trough, while the ETKF targets are far more likely to occur northeast of the storm, over the Northern North Atlantic. While the ETKF techniques often produce targets that are significantly different than those based purely on 48-h ensemble spread, they are nonetheless constrained by ensemble characteristics, specifically the estimate of analysis error covariance produced by the 48-h ensemble, which often has maximum variance over the northern North Atlantic. Unlike the ETKF techniques, the "dynamics only" TESV method is not designed to consider spatial differences in the likely analysis errors (e.g., relatively small over land and large over oceans). Constraining the SV calculation using estimated analysis error variances results in a shift of the target areas away from well-observed regions, such as the eastern US. However, each analysis error estimate has different liabilities. The NAVDAS estimate currently has no flow-dependent component. The ETKF estimates are constrained by the ensemble construction methods. Data denial experiments are planned to examine the impact of data in target regions on the forecast error.

AB - As noted in M2006, there are considerable differences in the targeting products produced using TESV and ETKF methods. When the targets are remote from the storm, the TESVs usually indicate targets northwest of the storm, often associated with an upstream trough, while the ETKF targets are far more likely to occur northeast of the storm, over the Northern North Atlantic. While the ETKF techniques often produce targets that are significantly different than those based purely on 48-h ensemble spread, they are nonetheless constrained by ensemble characteristics, specifically the estimate of analysis error covariance produced by the 48-h ensemble, which often has maximum variance over the northern North Atlantic. Unlike the ETKF techniques, the "dynamics only" TESV method is not designed to consider spatial differences in the likely analysis errors (e.g., relatively small over land and large over oceans). Constraining the SV calculation using estimated analysis error variances results in a shift of the target areas away from well-observed regions, such as the eastern US. However, each analysis error estimate has different liabilities. The NAVDAS estimate currently has no flow-dependent component. The ETKF estimates are constrained by the ensemble construction methods. Data denial experiments are planned to examine the impact of data in target regions on the forecast error.

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