Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming

Gabriel A. Vecchi, Brian J Soden

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

187 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (Vs) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in Vs over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these Vs changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL08702
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume34
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 28 2007

Fingerprint

hurricanes
wind shear
global warming
hurricane
projection
shear
Walker circulation
climate models
greenhouses
twenty first century
global climate
climate modeling
environmental factor
warming
experiment
statistics
heating

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. / Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, No. 8, L08702, 28.04.2007.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{9006f64f6bcb4569ad8caaba4154f381,
title = "Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming",
abstract = "To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (Vs) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in Vs over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these Vs changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.",
author = "Vecchi, {Gabriel A.} and Soden, {Brian J}",
year = "2007",
month = "4",
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2006GL028905",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "34",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming

AU - Vecchi, Gabriel A.

AU - Soden, Brian J

PY - 2007/4/28

Y1 - 2007/4/28

N2 - To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (Vs) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in Vs over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these Vs changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.

AB - To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (Vs) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in Vs over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these Vs changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34250746868&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=34250746868&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2006GL028905

DO - 10.1029/2006GL028905

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:34250746868

VL - 34

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 8

M1 - L08702

ER -