Abstract
NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a number of skillful track guidance models, but only a limited number of intensity prediction schemes. The relatively low skill of intensity forecasts is due to the complexity of the problem, which involves a very wide range of scales, and interaction with the underlying ocean. The empirical Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) provides intensity predictions with accuracy comparable to those from the coupled threedimensional GFDL hurricane model [1]. SHIPS was implemented at the NHC in 1996, and upgraded in 2004 to include upper ocean heat content (OHC) estimated from satellite altimetry. It is believed that hurricane intensification can occur over regions where OHC values exceed 50 kJ/cm 2, not just in regions of high sea surface temperature [2]. The OHC analysis presently incorporates sea surface height from Jason-1 and Geosat Follow-On. Envisat altimetry is expected to be included in the OHC analysis for the 2007 hurricane season. Efforts are underway to reduce the latency of Envisat data by including the FastDelivery Marine Abridged Record (FDMAR) products.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Journal | Unknown Journal |
| Issue number | SP-636 |
| State | Published - Jul 2007 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Aerospace Engineering
Cite this
Hurricane intensity forecasting at NOAA using Envisat altimetry. / Lillibridge, John; Shay, Lynn K; DeMaria, Mark; Goni, Gustavo; Mainelli, Michelle; Scharroo, Remko; Russell, Lamar.
In: Unknown Journal, No. SP-636, 07.2007.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Hurricane intensity forecasting at NOAA using Envisat altimetry
AU - Lillibridge, John
AU - Shay, Lynn K
AU - DeMaria, Mark
AU - Goni, Gustavo
AU - Mainelli, Michelle
AU - Scharroo, Remko
AU - Russell, Lamar
PY - 2007/7
Y1 - 2007/7
N2 - NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a number of skillful track guidance models, but only a limited number of intensity prediction schemes. The relatively low skill of intensity forecasts is due to the complexity of the problem, which involves a very wide range of scales, and interaction with the underlying ocean. The empirical Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) provides intensity predictions with accuracy comparable to those from the coupled threedimensional GFDL hurricane model [1]. SHIPS was implemented at the NHC in 1996, and upgraded in 2004 to include upper ocean heat content (OHC) estimated from satellite altimetry. It is believed that hurricane intensification can occur over regions where OHC values exceed 50 kJ/cm 2, not just in regions of high sea surface temperature [2]. The OHC analysis presently incorporates sea surface height from Jason-1 and Geosat Follow-On. Envisat altimetry is expected to be included in the OHC analysis for the 2007 hurricane season. Efforts are underway to reduce the latency of Envisat data by including the FastDelivery Marine Abridged Record (FDMAR) products.
AB - NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a number of skillful track guidance models, but only a limited number of intensity prediction schemes. The relatively low skill of intensity forecasts is due to the complexity of the problem, which involves a very wide range of scales, and interaction with the underlying ocean. The empirical Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) provides intensity predictions with accuracy comparable to those from the coupled threedimensional GFDL hurricane model [1]. SHIPS was implemented at the NHC in 1996, and upgraded in 2004 to include upper ocean heat content (OHC) estimated from satellite altimetry. It is believed that hurricane intensification can occur over regions where OHC values exceed 50 kJ/cm 2, not just in regions of high sea surface temperature [2]. The OHC analysis presently incorporates sea surface height from Jason-1 and Geosat Follow-On. Envisat altimetry is expected to be included in the OHC analysis for the 2007 hurricane season. Efforts are underway to reduce the latency of Envisat data by including the FastDelivery Marine Abridged Record (FDMAR) products.
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M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:36448958415
JO - Scientific Computing and Instrumentation
JF - Scientific Computing and Instrumentation
SN - 1078-8956
IS - SP-636
ER -