Global Dynamics of a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemic Model with a Generalized Nonmonotone Incidence Rate

Min Lu, Jicai Huang, Shigui Ruan, Pei Yu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

A susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIRS) epidemic model with a generalized nonmonotone incidence rate kIS1+βI+αI2 (β>-2α such that 1 + βI+ αI2> 0 for all I≥ 0 ) is considered in this paper. It is shown that the basic reproduction number R does not act as a threshold value for the disease spread anymore, and there exists a sub-threshold value R(< 1 ) such that: (i) if R< R, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; (ii) if R= R, then there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is a nilpotent cusp of codimension at most three; (iii) if R< R< 1 , then there are two endemic equilibria, one is a weak focus of multiplicity at least three, the other is a saddle; (iv) if R≥ 1 , then there is again a unique endemic equilibrium which is a weak focus of multiplicity at least three. As parameters vary, the model undergoes saddle-node bifurcation, backward bifurcation, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension three, Hopf bifurcation, and degenerate Hopf bifurcation of codimension three. Moreover, it is shown that there exists a critical value α for the psychological effect α, a critical value k for the infection rate k, and two critical values β, β11< β) for β that will determine whether the disease dies out or persists in the form of positive periodic coexistent oscillations or coexistent steady states under different initial populations. Numerical simulations are given to demonstrate the existence of one, two or three limit cycles.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalJournal of Dynamics and Differential Equations
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - 2020

Keywords

  • Backward bifurcation
  • Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension three
  • Degenerate Hopf bifurcation of codimension three
  • Generalized nonmonotone incidence rate
  • Saddle-node bifurcation
  • SIRS epidemic model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Analysis

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