Global Carbon Budget 2017

Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C.E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric ChevallierLouise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank J Millero, Pedro M.S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Shin Ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T.Vander Laan-Luijkx, Guido R.Vander Werf, Steven Van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Dan Zhu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

324 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1δ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7±1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of-0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Ninõ conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8±0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of C2.0% (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)405-448
Number of pages44
JournalEarth System Science Data
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 12 2018

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carbon budget
land use change
carbon cycle
biosphere
ocean
atmosphere
Gross Domestic Product
environmental policy
deforestation
fossil fuel
land cover
cement
carbon dioxide
fossil
climate change
methodology
industry

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Manning, A. C., ... Zhu, D. (2018). Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data, 10(1), 405-448. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018

Global Carbon Budget 2017. / Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Pongratz, Julia; Manning, Andrew C.; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan; Peters, Glen P.; Canadell, Josep G.; Jackson, Robert B.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Andrews, Oliver D.; Arora, Vivek K.; Bakker, Dorothee C.E.; Barbero, Leticia; Becker, Meike; Betts, Richard A.; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Cosca, Catherine E.; Cross, Jessica; Currie, Kim; Gasser, Thomas; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Houghton, Richard A.; Hunt, Christopher W.; Hurtt, George; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Kautz, Markus; Keeling, Ralph F.; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lima, Ivan; Lombardozzi, Danica; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank J; Monteiro, Pedro M.S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E.M.S.; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro; Nojiri, Yukihiro; Antonio Padin, X.; Peregon, Anna; Pfeil, Benjamin; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rehder, Gregor; Reimer, Janet; Rödenbeck, Christian; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.Vander; Werf, Guido R.Vander; Van Heuven, Steven; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Watson, Andrew J.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhu, Dan.

In: Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, No. 1, 12.03.2018, p. 405-448.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Le Quéré, C, Andrew, RM, Friedlingstein, P, Sitch, S, Pongratz, J, Manning, AC, Ivar Korsbakken, J, Peters, GP, Canadell, JG, Jackson, RB, Boden, TA, Tans, PP, Andrews, OD, Arora, VK, Bakker, DCE, Barbero, L, Becker, M, Betts, RA, Bopp, L, Chevallier, F, Chini, LP, Ciais, P, Cosca, CE, Cross, J, Currie, K, Gasser, T, Harris, I, Hauck, J, Haverd, V, Houghton, RA, Hunt, CW, Hurtt, G, Ilyina, T, Jain, AK, Kato, E, Kautz, M, Keeling, RF, Klein Goldewijk, K, Körtzinger, A, Landschützer, P, Lefèvre, N, Lenton, A, Lienert, S, Lima, I, Lombardozzi, D, Metzl, N, Millero, FJ, Monteiro, PMS, Munro, DR, Nabel, JEMS, Nakaoka, SI, Nojiri, Y, Antonio Padin, X, Peregon, A, Pfeil, B, Pierrot, D, Poulter, B, Rehder, G, Reimer, J, Rödenbeck, C, Schwinger, J, Séférian, R, Skjelvan, I, Stocker, BD, Tian, H, Tilbrook, B, Tubiello, FN, Laan-Luijkx, ITV, Werf, GRV, Van Heuven, S, Viovy, N, Vuichard, N, Walker, AP, Watson, AJ, Wiltshire, AJ, Zaehle, S & Zhu, D 2018, 'Global Carbon Budget 2017', Earth System Science Data, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 405-448. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018
Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Pongratz J, Manning AC et al. Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data. 2018 Mar 12;10(1):405-448. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018
Le Quéré, Corinne ; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Sitch, Stephen ; Pongratz, Julia ; Manning, Andrew C. ; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan ; Peters, Glen P. ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Jackson, Robert B. ; Boden, Thomas A. ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Andrews, Oliver D. ; Arora, Vivek K. ; Bakker, Dorothee C.E. ; Barbero, Leticia ; Becker, Meike ; Betts, Richard A. ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Cosca, Catherine E. ; Cross, Jessica ; Currie, Kim ; Gasser, Thomas ; Harris, Ian ; Hauck, Judith ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Hunt, Christopher W. ; Hurtt, George ; Ilyina, Tatiana ; Jain, Atul K. ; Kato, Etsushi ; Kautz, Markus ; Keeling, Ralph F. ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Körtzinger, Arne ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lenton, Andrew ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Lima, Ivan ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Millero, Frank J ; Monteiro, Pedro M.S. ; Munro, David R. ; Nabel, Julia E.M.S. ; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro ; Nojiri, Yukihiro ; Antonio Padin, X. ; Peregon, Anna ; Pfeil, Benjamin ; Pierrot, Denis ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Rehder, Gregor ; Reimer, Janet ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Schwinger, Jörg ; Séférian, Roland ; Skjelvan, Ingunn ; Stocker, Benjamin D. ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Tubiello, Francesco N. ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.Vander ; Werf, Guido R.Vander ; Van Heuven, Steven ; Viovy, Nicolas ; Vuichard, Nicolas ; Walker, Anthony P. ; Watson, Andrew J. ; Wiltshire, Andrew J. ; Zaehle, Sönke ; Zhu, Dan. / Global Carbon Budget 2017. In: Earth System Science Data. 2018 ; Vol. 10, No. 1. pp. 405-448.
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abstract = "Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the {"}global carbon budget{"}-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1δ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7±1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of-0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Nin{\~o} conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8±0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of C2.0{\%} (range of 0.8 to 3.0 {\%}) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e} et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Global Carbon Budget 2017

AU - Le Quéré, Corinne

AU - Andrew, Robbie M.

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Sitch, Stephen

AU - Pongratz, Julia

AU - Manning, Andrew C.

AU - Ivar Korsbakken, Jan

AU - Peters, Glen P.

AU - Canadell, Josep G.

AU - Jackson, Robert B.

AU - Boden, Thomas A.

AU - Tans, Pieter P.

AU - Andrews, Oliver D.

AU - Arora, Vivek K.

AU - Bakker, Dorothee C.E.

AU - Barbero, Leticia

AU - Becker, Meike

AU - Betts, Richard A.

AU - Bopp, Laurent

AU - Chevallier, Frédéric

AU - Chini, Louise P.

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Cosca, Catherine E.

AU - Cross, Jessica

AU - Currie, Kim

AU - Gasser, Thomas

AU - Harris, Ian

AU - Hauck, Judith

AU - Haverd, Vanessa

AU - Houghton, Richard A.

AU - Hunt, Christopher W.

AU - Hurtt, George

AU - Ilyina, Tatiana

AU - Jain, Atul K.

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Kautz, Markus

AU - Keeling, Ralph F.

AU - Klein Goldewijk, Kees

AU - Körtzinger, Arne

AU - Landschützer, Peter

AU - Lefèvre, Nathalie

AU - Lenton, Andrew

AU - Lienert, Sebastian

AU - Lima, Ivan

AU - Lombardozzi, Danica

AU - Metzl, Nicolas

AU - Millero, Frank J

AU - Monteiro, Pedro M.S.

AU - Munro, David R.

AU - Nabel, Julia E.M.S.

AU - Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro

AU - Nojiri, Yukihiro

AU - Antonio Padin, X.

AU - Peregon, Anna

AU - Pfeil, Benjamin

AU - Pierrot, Denis

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Rehder, Gregor

AU - Reimer, Janet

AU - Rödenbeck, Christian

AU - Schwinger, Jörg

AU - Séférian, Roland

AU - Skjelvan, Ingunn

AU - Stocker, Benjamin D.

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Tilbrook, Bronte

AU - Tubiello, Francesco N.

AU - Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.Vander

AU - Werf, Guido R.Vander

AU - Van Heuven, Steven

AU - Viovy, Nicolas

AU - Vuichard, Nicolas

AU - Walker, Anthony P.

AU - Watson, Andrew J.

AU - Wiltshire, Andrew J.

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

AU - Zhu, Dan

PY - 2018/3/12

Y1 - 2018/3/12

N2 - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1δ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7±1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of-0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Ninõ conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8±0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of C2.0% (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

AB - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1δ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7±1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of-0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Ninõ conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8±0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of C2.0% (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

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