Global Carbon Budget 2016

Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim CurrieChristine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank J Millero, Pedro M S Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E M S Nabel, Shin Ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. Van Der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

491 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ± reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.5±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.1±0.9 GtC yr-1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8%yr-1 that took place during 2006-2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.3±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 3.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 1.9±0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4±0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with C0.2% (range of-1.0 to C1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Ninõ conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565±55 GtC (2075±205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)605-649
Number of pages45
JournalEarth System Science Data
Volume8
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 14 2016

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carbon budget
land use change
ocean
deforestation
carbon dioxide
methodology
Gross Domestic Product
carbon cycle
biosphere
environmental policy
fossil fuel
land cover
cement
persistence
anomaly

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Ivar Korsbakken, J., Peters, G. P., ... Zaehle, S. (2016). Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data, 8(2), 605-649. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016. / Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Alin, Simone; Andrews, Oliver D.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Currie, Kim; Delire, Christine; Doney, Scott C.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Hoppema, Mario; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Melton, Joe R.; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank J; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E M S; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro; O'Brien, Kevin; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Ono, Tsuneo; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rödenbeck, Christian; Salisbury, Joe; Schuster, Ute; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Takahashi, Taro; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Van Der Werf, Guido R.; Viovy, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke.

In: Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, No. 2, 14.11.2016, p. 605-649.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Le Quéré, C, Andrew, RM, Canadell, JG, Sitch, S, Ivar Korsbakken, J, Peters, GP, Manning, AC, Boden, TA, Tans, PP, Houghton, RA, Keeling, RF, Alin, S, Andrews, OD, Anthoni, P, Barbero, L, Bopp, L, Chevallier, F, Chini, LP, Ciais, P, Currie, K, Delire, C, Doney, SC, Friedlingstein, P, Gkritzalis, T, Harris, I, Hauck, J, Haverd, V, Hoppema, M, Klein Goldewijk, K, Jain, AK, Kato, E, Körtzinger, A, Landschützer, P, Lefèvre, N, Lenton, A, Lienert, S, Lombardozzi, D, Melton, JR, Metzl, N, Millero, FJ, Monteiro, PMS, Munro, DR, Nabel, JEMS, Nakaoka, SI, O'Brien, K, Olsen, A, Omar, AM, Ono, T, Pierrot, D, Poulter, B, Rödenbeck, C, Salisbury, J, Schuster, U, Schwinger, J, Séférian, R, Skjelvan, I, Stocker, BD, Sutton, AJ, Takahashi, T, Tian, H, Tilbrook, B, Van Der Laan-Luijkx, IT, Van Der Werf, GR, Viovy, N, Walker, AP, Wiltshire, AJ & Zaehle, S 2016, 'Global Carbon Budget 2016', Earth System Science Data, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 605-649. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016
Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Sitch S, Ivar Korsbakken J, Peters GP et al. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data. 2016 Nov 14;8(2):605-649. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016
Le Quéré, Corinne ; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Sitch, Stephen ; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan ; Peters, Glen P. ; Manning, Andrew C. ; Boden, Thomas A. ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Keeling, Ralph F. ; Alin, Simone ; Andrews, Oliver D. ; Anthoni, Peter ; Barbero, Leticia ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Currie, Kim ; Delire, Christine ; Doney, Scott C. ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Gkritzalis, Thanos ; Harris, Ian ; Hauck, Judith ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Hoppema, Mario ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Jain, Atul K. ; Kato, Etsushi ; Körtzinger, Arne ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lenton, Andrew ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Melton, Joe R. ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Millero, Frank J ; Monteiro, Pedro M S ; Munro, David R. ; Nabel, Julia E M S ; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro ; O'Brien, Kevin ; Olsen, Are ; Omar, Abdirahman M. ; Ono, Tsuneo ; Pierrot, Denis ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Salisbury, Joe ; Schuster, Ute ; Schwinger, Jörg ; Séférian, Roland ; Skjelvan, Ingunn ; Stocker, Benjamin D. ; Sutton, Adrienne J. ; Takahashi, Taro ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. ; Van Der Werf, Guido R. ; Viovy, Nicolas ; Walker, Anthony P. ; Wiltshire, Andrew J. ; Zaehle, Sönke. / Global Carbon Budget 2016. In: Earth System Science Data. 2016 ; Vol. 8, No. 2. pp. 605-649.
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title = "Global Carbon Budget 2016",
abstract = "Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the {"}global carbon budget{"}-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ± reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.5±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.1±0.9 GtC yr-1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8{\%}yr-1 that took place during 2006-2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.3±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 3.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 1.9±0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4±0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with C0.2{\%} (range of-1.0 to C1.8 {\%}) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nin{\~o} conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565±55 GtC (2075±205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75{\%} from EFF and 25{\%} from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e} et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.",
author = "{Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e}}, Corinne and Andrew, {Robbie M.} and Canadell, {Josep G.} and Stephen Sitch and {Ivar Korsbakken}, Jan and Peters, {Glen P.} and Manning, {Andrew C.} and Boden, {Thomas A.} and Tans, {Pieter P.} and Houghton, {Richard A.} and Keeling, {Ralph F.} and Simone Alin and Andrews, {Oliver D.} and Peter Anthoni and Leticia Barbero and Laurent Bopp and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Chevallier and Chini, {Louise P.} and Philippe Ciais and Kim Currie and Christine Delire and Doney, {Scott C.} and Pierre Friedlingstein and Thanos Gkritzalis and Ian Harris and Judith Hauck and Vanessa Haverd and Mario Hoppema and {Klein Goldewijk}, Kees and Jain, {Atul K.} and Etsushi Kato and Arne K{\"o}rtzinger and Peter Landsch{\"u}tzer and Nathalie Lef{\`e}vre and Andrew Lenton and Sebastian Lienert and Danica Lombardozzi and Melton, {Joe R.} and Nicolas Metzl and Millero, {Frank J} and Monteiro, {Pedro M S} and Munro, {David R.} and Nabel, {Julia E M S} and Nakaoka, {Shin Ichiro} and Kevin O'Brien and Are Olsen and Omar, {Abdirahman M.} and Tsuneo Ono and Denis Pierrot and Benjamin Poulter and Christian R{\"o}denbeck and Joe Salisbury and Ute Schuster and J{\"o}rg Schwinger and Roland S{\'e}f{\'e}rian and Ingunn Skjelvan and Stocker, {Benjamin D.} and Sutton, {Adrienne J.} and Taro Takahashi and Hanqin Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and {Van Der Laan-Luijkx}, {Ingrid T.} and {Van Der Werf}, {Guido R.} and Nicolas Viovy and Walker, {Anthony P.} and Wiltshire, {Andrew J.} and S{\"o}nke Zaehle",
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month = "11",
day = "14",
doi = "10.5194/essd-8-605-2016",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "8",
pages = "605--649",
journal = "Earth System Science Data",
issn = "1866-3508",
publisher = "Copernicus Publications",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Global Carbon Budget 2016

AU - Le Quéré, Corinne

AU - Andrew, Robbie M.

AU - Canadell, Josep G.

AU - Sitch, Stephen

AU - Ivar Korsbakken, Jan

AU - Peters, Glen P.

AU - Manning, Andrew C.

AU - Boden, Thomas A.

AU - Tans, Pieter P.

AU - Houghton, Richard A.

AU - Keeling, Ralph F.

AU - Alin, Simone

AU - Andrews, Oliver D.

AU - Anthoni, Peter

AU - Barbero, Leticia

AU - Bopp, Laurent

AU - Chevallier, Frédéric

AU - Chini, Louise P.

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Currie, Kim

AU - Delire, Christine

AU - Doney, Scott C.

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Gkritzalis, Thanos

AU - Harris, Ian

AU - Hauck, Judith

AU - Haverd, Vanessa

AU - Hoppema, Mario

AU - Klein Goldewijk, Kees

AU - Jain, Atul K.

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Körtzinger, Arne

AU - Landschützer, Peter

AU - Lefèvre, Nathalie

AU - Lenton, Andrew

AU - Lienert, Sebastian

AU - Lombardozzi, Danica

AU - Melton, Joe R.

AU - Metzl, Nicolas

AU - Millero, Frank J

AU - Monteiro, Pedro M S

AU - Munro, David R.

AU - Nabel, Julia E M S

AU - Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro

AU - O'Brien, Kevin

AU - Olsen, Are

AU - Omar, Abdirahman M.

AU - Ono, Tsuneo

AU - Pierrot, Denis

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Rödenbeck, Christian

AU - Salisbury, Joe

AU - Schuster, Ute

AU - Schwinger, Jörg

AU - Séférian, Roland

AU - Skjelvan, Ingunn

AU - Stocker, Benjamin D.

AU - Sutton, Adrienne J.

AU - Takahashi, Taro

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Tilbrook, Bronte

AU - Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.

AU - Van Der Werf, Guido R.

AU - Viovy, Nicolas

AU - Walker, Anthony P.

AU - Wiltshire, Andrew J.

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

PY - 2016/11/14

Y1 - 2016/11/14

N2 - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ± reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.5±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.1±0.9 GtC yr-1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8%yr-1 that took place during 2006-2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.3±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 3.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 1.9±0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4±0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with C0.2% (range of-1.0 to C1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Ninõ conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565±55 GtC (2075±205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

AB - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ± reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.5±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.1±0.9 GtC yr-1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8%yr-1 that took place during 2006-2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.3±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 3.0±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 1.9±0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4±0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with C0.2% (range of-1.0 to C1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Ninõ conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565±55 GtC (2075±205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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