Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control

Steven C. Le Comber, D. Kim Rossmo, Ali N. Hassan, Douglas Fuller, John C Beier

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Geographic profiling is a statistical tool originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime. Here, we use two data sets - one historical and one modern - to show how it can be used to locate the sources of infectious disease.Results: First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump - the outbreak's source- ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency.Conclusions: We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.

Original languageEnglish
Article number35
JournalInternational Journal of Health Geographics
Volume10
DOIs
StatePublished - May 18 2011

Fingerprint

Disease control
Disease Outbreaks
Communicable Diseases
Criminology
Anopheles
Water
Egypt
Cholera
Crime
Malaria
Epidemiologic Studies
Pumps
Costs and Cost Analysis
Integrated control
Profiling
Infectious diseases
Targeting
Costs
Datasets

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science(all)
  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control. / Le Comber, Steven C.; Rossmo, D. Kim; Hassan, Ali N.; Fuller, Douglas; Beier, John C.

In: International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol. 10, 35, 18.05.2011.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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