Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Mark DeMaria; M. Mainelli; L. K. Shay; J. A. Knaff; J. Kaplan

Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Mark DeMaria, M. Mainelli, L. K. Shay, J. A. Knaff, J. Kaplan

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Simpler statistical models such as the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) tend to have smaller intensity forecast errors than more general physical models. An overview is given of the modifications to the operational SHIPS model since 1997. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from three to five days in 2001, and a more accurate method for evaluating the atmospheric parameters such as vertical wind shear that are correlated with intensity changes.

Original language	English (US)
Number of pages	1
Journal	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume	86
Issue number	9
State	Published - Sep 1 2005
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Atmospheric Science

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this

@article{b34097e24e434ffaa8913a066f5fd7ab,

title = "Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)",

abstract = "Simpler statistical models such as the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) tend to have smaller intensity forecast errors than more general physical models. An overview is given of the modifications to the operational SHIPS model since 1997. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from three to five days in 2001, and a more accurate method for evaluating the atmospheric parameters such as vertical wind shear that are correlated with intensity changes.",

author = "Mark DeMaria and M. Mainelli and Shay, {L. K.} and Knaff, {J. A.} and J. Kaplan",

year = "2005",

month = sep,

day = "1",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "86",

journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",

issn = "0003-0007",

publisher = "American Meteorological Society",

number = "9",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

AU - DeMaria, Mark

AU - Mainelli, M.

AU - Shay, L. K.

AU - Knaff, J. A.

AU - Kaplan, J.

PY - 2005/9/1

Y1 - 2005/9/1

N2 - Simpler statistical models such as the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) tend to have smaller intensity forecast errors than more general physical models. An overview is given of the modifications to the operational SHIPS model since 1997. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from three to five days in 2001, and a more accurate method for evaluating the atmospheric parameters such as vertical wind shear that are correlated with intensity changes.

AB - Simpler statistical models such as the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) tend to have smaller intensity forecast errors than more general physical models. An overview is given of the modifications to the operational SHIPS model since 1997. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from three to five days in 2001, and a more accurate method for evaluating the atmospheric parameters such as vertical wind shear that are correlated with intensity changes.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=25844496921&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=25844496921&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:25844496921

VL - 86

JO - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

JF - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

SN - 0003-0007

IS - 9

ER -

Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Other files and links

Cite this