Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Simpler statistical models such as the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) tend to have smaller intensity forecast errors than more general physical models. An overview is given of the modifications to the operational SHIPS model since 1997. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from three to five days in 2001, and a more accurate method for evaluating the atmospheric parameters such as vertical wind shear that are correlated with intensity changes.