From micro to macro: Uncovering and predicting information cascading process with behavioral dynamics

Linyun Yu, Peng Cui, Fei Wang, Chaoming Song, Shiqiang Yang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

44 Scopus citations


Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments. How to predict these cascades is highly nontrivial in several vital applications, such as viral marketing, epidemic prevention and traffic management. Most previous works mainly focus on predicting the final cascade sizes. As cascades are typical dynamic processes, it is always interesting and important to predict the cascade size at any time, or predict the time when a cascade will reach a certain size (e.g. an threshold for outbreak). In this paper, we unify all these tasks into a fundamental problem: cascading process prediction. That is, given the early stage of a cascade, how to predict its cumulative cascade size of any later time? For such a challenging problem, how to understand the micro mechanism that drives and generates the macro phenomena (i.e. cascading process) is essential. Here we introduce behavioral dynamics as the micro mechanism to describe the dynamic process of a node's neighbors getting infected by a cascade after this node getting infected (i.e. one-hop subcascades). Through data-driven analysis, we find out the common principles and patterns lying in behavioral dynamics and propose a novel Networked Weibull Regression model for behavioral dynamics modeling. After that we propose a novel method for predicting cascading processes by effectively aggregating behavioral dynamics, and present a scalable solution to approximate the cascading process with a theoretical guarantee. We extensively evaluate the proposed method on a large scale social network dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines in multiple tasks including cascade size prediction, outbreak time prediction and cascading process prediction.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 15th IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2015
EditorsCharu Aggarwal, Zhi-Hua Zhou, Alexander Tuzhilin, Hui Xiong, Xindong Wu
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781467395038
StatePublished - Jan 5 2016
Event15th IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2015 - Atlantic City, United States
Duration: Nov 14 2015Nov 17 2015

Publication series

NameProceedings - IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM
ISSN (Print)1550-4786


Other15th IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2015
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityAtlantic City


  • Dynamic Processes Prediction
  • Information Cascades
  • Social Network

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)


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