Abstract
This article analyzes the use of climate forecasts among members of the Peruvian fishing sector during the 1997/98 El Niño event. It focuses on the effect of the time of hearing a forecast on the socioeconomic responses to the forecast. Finding are based on data collected from a survey of 596 persons in five ports spanning the length of the Peruvian coast. Respondents include commercial and artisanal fishers, plant workers, managers, and firm owners. These data fill an important gap in the literature on the use of forecasts. Though modelers have discussed the effects of the timing of the dissemination and reception of forecasts, along with other factors, on acting on a forecast once it hs been heard, few researchers have gathered empirical evidence on these topics. The 1997/98 El Niño event was covered extensively by the media throughout Peru, affording the opportunity to study the effect of hearing forecasts on actions taken by members of a population directly impacted by ENSO events. Findings of this study examine the relationships among 1) socioeconomic variables, including geographic factors, age, education, income level, organizational ties, and media access; 2) time of hearing the forecast; and 3) actions taken in response to the forecast. Socio-economic variables have a strong effect on the time of hearing the forecast and the actions taken in response to the forecast; however, time of hearing does not have an independent effect on taking action. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the application of forecasts.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1735-17433 |
| Number of pages | 15699 |
| Journal | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
| Volume | 85 |
| Issue number | 11 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Nov 2004 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Atmospheric Science
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Factors that influence the use of climate forecasts : Evidence from the 1997/98 El Niño event in Peru. / Orlove, Benjamin S.; Broad, Kenneth; Petty, Aaron M.
In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 85, No. 11, 11.2004, p. 1735-17433.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Factors that influence the use of climate forecasts
T2 - Evidence from the 1997/98 El Niño event in Peru
AU - Orlove, Benjamin S.
AU - Broad, Kenneth
AU - Petty, Aaron M.
PY - 2004/11
Y1 - 2004/11
N2 - This article analyzes the use of climate forecasts among members of the Peruvian fishing sector during the 1997/98 El Niño event. It focuses on the effect of the time of hearing a forecast on the socioeconomic responses to the forecast. Finding are based on data collected from a survey of 596 persons in five ports spanning the length of the Peruvian coast. Respondents include commercial and artisanal fishers, plant workers, managers, and firm owners. These data fill an important gap in the literature on the use of forecasts. Though modelers have discussed the effects of the timing of the dissemination and reception of forecasts, along with other factors, on acting on a forecast once it hs been heard, few researchers have gathered empirical evidence on these topics. The 1997/98 El Niño event was covered extensively by the media throughout Peru, affording the opportunity to study the effect of hearing forecasts on actions taken by members of a population directly impacted by ENSO events. Findings of this study examine the relationships among 1) socioeconomic variables, including geographic factors, age, education, income level, organizational ties, and media access; 2) time of hearing the forecast; and 3) actions taken in response to the forecast. Socio-economic variables have a strong effect on the time of hearing the forecast and the actions taken in response to the forecast; however, time of hearing does not have an independent effect on taking action. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the application of forecasts.
AB - This article analyzes the use of climate forecasts among members of the Peruvian fishing sector during the 1997/98 El Niño event. It focuses on the effect of the time of hearing a forecast on the socioeconomic responses to the forecast. Finding are based on data collected from a survey of 596 persons in five ports spanning the length of the Peruvian coast. Respondents include commercial and artisanal fishers, plant workers, managers, and firm owners. These data fill an important gap in the literature on the use of forecasts. Though modelers have discussed the effects of the timing of the dissemination and reception of forecasts, along with other factors, on acting on a forecast once it hs been heard, few researchers have gathered empirical evidence on these topics. The 1997/98 El Niño event was covered extensively by the media throughout Peru, affording the opportunity to study the effect of hearing forecasts on actions taken by members of a population directly impacted by ENSO events. Findings of this study examine the relationships among 1) socioeconomic variables, including geographic factors, age, education, income level, organizational ties, and media access; 2) time of hearing the forecast; and 3) actions taken in response to the forecast. Socio-economic variables have a strong effect on the time of hearing the forecast and the actions taken in response to the forecast; however, time of hearing does not have an independent effect on taking action. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the application of forecasts.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=10944262677&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=10944262677&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1175/BAMS-85-11-1735
DO - 10.1175/BAMS-85-11-1735
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:10944262677
VL - 85
SP - 1735
EP - 17433
JO - Earth Interactions
JF - Earth Interactions
SN - 0003-0007
IS - 11
ER -