TY - JOUR
T1 - Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
AU - Becker, Emily
AU - Kirtman, Ben P
AU - Pegion, Kathy
N1 - Funding Information:
NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA, and DOE. The NMME forecasts and data archive are created, updated, and maintained by NCEP, IRI, and NCAR personnel. All NMME and verification data for this study can be freely obtained from the database hosted at IRI ( http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/ ).
Funding Information:
NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA, and DOE. The NMME forecasts and data archive are created, updated, and maintained by NCEP, IRI, and NCAR personnel. All NMME and verification data for this study can be freely obtained from the database hosted at IRI (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/).
Publisher Copyright:
©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/5/16
Y1 - 2020/5/16
N2 - The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) has become integral scientific infrastructure in subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction, advancing applied prediction and scientific understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of short-term climate. The NMME was designed to evolve as old models were retired and new models joined the ensemble. This study examines the assumption that prediction skill will increase as the system evolves, focusing on 2 m temperature, precipitation rate, and sea surface temperature prediction. The common period of 1982–2010 is studied for four configurations of the NMME, approximately representing the operational model suites of 2011, 2012, 2014–2018, and 2019–present. Substantial improvement in temperature prediction over both land and ocean is observed, with little change in global precipitation prediction. Sea surface temperature prediction at longer leads has improved over much of the globe, with the notable exception of the central-eastern tropical Pacific, where prediction skill has declined.
AB - The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) has become integral scientific infrastructure in subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction, advancing applied prediction and scientific understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of short-term climate. The NMME was designed to evolve as old models were retired and new models joined the ensemble. This study examines the assumption that prediction skill will increase as the system evolves, focusing on 2 m temperature, precipitation rate, and sea surface temperature prediction. The common period of 1982–2010 is studied for four configurations of the NMME, approximately representing the operational model suites of 2011, 2012, 2014–2018, and 2019–present. Substantial improvement in temperature prediction over both land and ocean is observed, with little change in global precipitation prediction. Sea surface temperature prediction at longer leads has improved over much of the globe, with the notable exception of the central-eastern tropical Pacific, where prediction skill has declined.
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U2 - 10.1029/2020GL087408
DO - 10.1029/2020GL087408
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85084458868
VL - 47
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
SN - 0094-8276
IS - 9
M1 - e2020GL087408
ER -