Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Bohdan Nosyk, Xiao Zang, Emanuel Krebs, Jeong Eun Min, Czarina N. Behrends, Carlos Del Rio, Julia C. Dombrowski, Daniel J. Feaster, Matthew Golden, Brandon D.L. Marshall, Shruti H. Mehta, Lisa R. Metsch, Bruce R. Schackman, Steven Shoptaw, Steffanie A. Strathdee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI],-1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI,-2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2195-2198
Number of pages4
JournalClinical Infectious Diseases
Volume69
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 27 2019

Keywords

  • "Ending the HIV epidemic" plan
  • HIV/AIDS
  • dynamic transmission model
  • epidemiological projection

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

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