Dynamics of rabies epidemics and the impact of control efforts in Guangdong Province, China

Qiang Hou, Zhen Jin, Shigui Ruan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

23 Scopus citations

Abstract

Rabies is a major public health problem in some developing countries including China. One of the reasons is that there is a very large number of dogs, both domestic and stray, especially in Guangdong Province which has the third most rabies cases (after Guangxi and Hunan) among the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in Mainland China, and at least 18.2% of the human rabies cases are caused by stray dogs. In this paper, based on the reported data and characteristics of the rabies infection in Guangdong Province, we propose a mathematical model for the dog-human transmission of rabies. We first determine the basic reproduction number R 0 and discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and persistence of the disease. By carrying out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of some parameters, we find that the domestic dog vaccination rate, the recruitment rate of domestic dogs, and the quantity of stray dogs play important roles in the transmission of rabies. This study suggests that rabies control and prevention strategies should include public education and awareness about rabies, increase of the domestic dog vaccination rate and reduction of the stray dog population.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)39-47
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of theoretical biology
Volume300
DOIs
StatePublished - May 7 2012

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Rabies
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Stability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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