Dynamic simulation as an approach to understanding hurricane risk response

Insights from the stormview lab

Robert Meyer, Kenneth Broad, Ben Orlove, Nada Petrovic

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article investigates the use of dynamic laboratory simulations as a tool for studying decisions to prepare for hurricane threats. A prototype web-based simulation named Stormview is described that allows individuals to experience the approach of a hurricane in a computer-based environment. In Stormview participants can gather storm information through various media, hear the opinions of neighbors, and indicate intentions to take protective action. We illustrate how the ability to exert experimental control over the information viewed by participants can be used to provide insights into decision making that would be difficult to gain from field studies, such as how preparedness decisions are affected by the nature of news coverage of prior storms, how a storm's movement is depicted in graphics, and the content of word-of-mouth communications. Data from an initial application involving a sample of Florida residents reveal a number of unexpected findings about hurricane risk response. Participants who viewed forecast graphics, which contained track lines depicting the most likely path of the storm, for example, had higher levels of preparation than those who saw graphics that showed only uncertainty cones-even among those living far from the predicted center path. Similarly, the participants who were most likely to express worry about an approaching storm and fastest to undertake preparatory action were those who, ironically, had never experienced one. Finally, external validity is evidenced by a close rank-order correspondence between patterns of information use revealed in the lab and that found in previous cross-sectional field studies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1532-1552
Number of pages21
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume33
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2013

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Cyclonic Storms
Hurricanes
Computer simulation
Aptitude
Uncertainty
Decision Making
Cross-Sectional Studies
Communication
Information use
Cones
Decision making

Keywords

  • Adaptation
  • Decision making
  • Hurricanes
  • Laboratory simulation
  • Natural hazards

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physiology (medical)
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

Dynamic simulation as an approach to understanding hurricane risk response : Insights from the stormview lab. / Meyer, Robert; Broad, Kenneth; Orlove, Ben; Petrovic, Nada.

In: Risk Analysis, Vol. 33, No. 8, 08.2013, p. 1532-1552.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Meyer, Robert ; Broad, Kenneth ; Orlove, Ben ; Petrovic, Nada. / Dynamic simulation as an approach to understanding hurricane risk response : Insights from the stormview lab. In: Risk Analysis. 2013 ; Vol. 33, No. 8. pp. 1532-1552.
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