TY - JOUR
T1 - Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability
T2 - Implications for prediction
AU - Solomon, Amy
AU - Goddard, Lisa
AU - Kumar, Arun
AU - Carton, James
AU - Deser, Clara
AU - Fukumori, Ichiro
AU - Greene, Arthur M.
AU - Hegerl, Gabriele
AU - Kirtman, Ben
AU - Kushnir, Yochanan
AU - Newman, Matthew
AU - Smith, Doug
AU - Vimont, Dan
AU - Delworth, Tom
AU - Meehl, Gerald A.
AU - Stockdale, Timothy
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2011/2
Y1 - 2011/2
N2 - Existing methodologies to separate decadal natural variability from anthropogenically forced variability, the degree to which those efforts have succeeded, and the ways in which the methods are limited or challenged by existing data, are described. The methodologies include coupled general circulation models (CGCM) used in climate change projections, signal-to-noise (S/N) maximizing EOF analysis, and linear inverse modeling (LIM). The attribution methods attempt, with uncertainty estimates, to identify the contribution of each external forcing factor to the observed change. It is known that differences in the ocean base state alter the character of natural variability by changing the advective time scale of density/salinity anomalies and pathways between the extratropics and tropics. The rate at which forecast experience will accumulate on the decadal time scale is much slower than the rate at which it accumulates for weather forecasting.
AB - Existing methodologies to separate decadal natural variability from anthropogenically forced variability, the degree to which those efforts have succeeded, and the ways in which the methods are limited or challenged by existing data, are described. The methodologies include coupled general circulation models (CGCM) used in climate change projections, signal-to-noise (S/N) maximizing EOF analysis, and linear inverse modeling (LIM). The attribution methods attempt, with uncertainty estimates, to identify the contribution of each external forcing factor to the observed change. It is known that differences in the ocean base state alter the character of natural variability by changing the advective time scale of density/salinity anomalies and pathways between the extratropics and tropics. The rate at which forecast experience will accumulate on the decadal time scale is much slower than the rate at which it accumulates for weather forecasting.
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U2 - 10.1175/2010BAMS2962.1
DO - 10.1175/2010BAMS2962.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79251571111
VL - 92
SP - 141
EP - 156
JO - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
JF - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
SN - 0003-0007
IS - 2
ER -