Demography in an increasingly variable world

Mark S. Boyce; Chirakkal V. Haridas; Charlotte T. Lee; Carol L. Boggs; Emilio M. Bruna; Tim Coulson; Daniel Doak; John M. Drake; Jean Michel Gaillard; Carol C. Horvitz; Susan Kalisz; Bruce E. Kendall; Tiffany Knight; Michael Mastrandrea; Eric S. Menges; William F. Morris; Catherine A. Pfister; Shripad D. Tuljapurkar

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.018

Demography in an increasingly variable world

Mark S. Boyce, Chirakkal V. Haridas, Charlotte T. Lee, Carol L. Boggs, Emilio M. Bruna, Tim Coulson, Daniel Doak, John M. Drake, Jean Michel Gaillard, Carol C. Horvitz, Susan Kalisz, Bruce E. Kendall, Tiffany Knight, Michael Mastrandrea, Eric S. Menges, William F. Morris, Catherine A. Pfister, Shripad D. Tuljapurkar

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

279 Scopus citations

Abstract

Recent advances in stochastic demography provide unique insights into the probable effects of increasing environmental variability on population dynamics, and these insights can be substantially different compared with those from deterministic models. Stochastic variation in structured population models influences estimates of population growth rate, persistence and resilience, which ultimately can alter community composition, species interactions, distributions and harvesting. Here, we discuss how understanding these demographic consequences of environmental variation will have applications for anticipating changes in populations resulting from anthropogenic activities that affect the variance in vital rates. We also highlight new tools for anticipating the consequences of the magnitude and temporal patterning of environmental variability.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	141-148
Number of pages	8
Journal	Trends in Ecology and Evolution
Volume	21
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.018
State	Published - Mar 2006
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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Boyce, M. S., Haridas, C. V., Lee, C. T., Boggs, C. L., Bruna, E. M., Coulson, T., Doak, D., Drake, J. M., Gaillard, J. M., Horvitz, C. C., Kalisz, S., Kendall, B. E., Knight, T., Mastrandrea, M., Menges, E. S., Morris, W. F., Pfister, C. A., & Tuljapurkar, S. D. (2006). Demography in an increasingly variable world. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 21(3), 141-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.018

Demography in an increasingly variable world. / Boyce, Mark S.; Haridas, Chirakkal V.; Lee, Charlotte T.; Boggs, Carol L.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Coulson, Tim; Doak, Daniel; Drake, John M.; Gaillard, Jean Michel; Horvitz, Carol C.; Kalisz, Susan; Kendall, Bruce E.; Knight, Tiffany; Mastrandrea, Michael; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; Pfister, Catherine A.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad D.

In: Trends in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 21, No. 3, 03.2006, p. 141-148.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Boyce, MS, Haridas, CV, Lee, CT, Boggs, CL, Bruna, EM, Coulson, T, Doak, D, Drake, JM, Gaillard, JM, Horvitz, CC, Kalisz, S, Kendall, BE, Knight, T, Mastrandrea, M, Menges, ES, Morris, WF, Pfister, CA & Tuljapurkar, SD 2006, 'Demography in an increasingly variable world', Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 141-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.018

Boyce, Mark S. ; Haridas, Chirakkal V. ; Lee, Charlotte T. ; Boggs, Carol L. ; Bruna, Emilio M. ; Coulson, Tim ; Doak, Daniel ; Drake, John M. ; Gaillard, Jean Michel ; Horvitz, Carol C. ; Kalisz, Susan ; Kendall, Bruce E. ; Knight, Tiffany ; Mastrandrea, Michael ; Menges, Eric S. ; Morris, William F. ; Pfister, Catherine A. ; Tuljapurkar, Shripad D. / Demography in an increasingly variable world. In: Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 2006 ; Vol. 21, No. 3. pp. 141-148.

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abstract = "Recent advances in stochastic demography provide unique insights into the probable effects of increasing environmental variability on population dynamics, and these insights can be substantially different compared with those from deterministic models. Stochastic variation in structured population models influences estimates of population growth rate, persistence and resilience, which ultimately can alter community composition, species interactions, distributions and harvesting. Here, we discuss how understanding these demographic consequences of environmental variation will have applications for anticipating changes in populations resulting from anthropogenic activities that affect the variance in vital rates. We also highlight new tools for anticipating the consequences of the magnitude and temporal patterning of environmental variability.",

author = "Boyce, {Mark S.} and Haridas, {Chirakkal V.} and Lee, {Charlotte T.} and Boggs, {Carol L.} and Bruna, {Emilio M.} and Tim Coulson and Daniel Doak and Drake, {John M.} and Gaillard, {Jean Michel} and Horvitz, {Carol C.} and Susan Kalisz and Kendall, {Bruce E.} and Tiffany Knight and Michael Mastrandrea and Menges, {Eric S.} and Morris, {William F.} and Pfister, {Catherine A.} and Tuljapurkar, {Shripad D.}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was conducted as part of the Stochastic Demography Working Group supported by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, a Center funded by NSF (Grant #DEB-94–21535), the University of California at Santa Barbara, and the State of California. We thank anonymous reviewers for insightful comments.",

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AU - Boggs, Carol L.

AU - Bruna, Emilio M.

AU - Coulson, Tim

AU - Doak, Daniel

AU - Drake, John M.

AU - Gaillard, Jean Michel

AU - Horvitz, Carol C.

AU - Kalisz, Susan

AU - Kendall, Bruce E.

AU - Knight, Tiffany

AU - Mastrandrea, Michael

AU - Menges, Eric S.

AU - Morris, William F.

AU - Pfister, Catherine A.

AU - Tuljapurkar, Shripad D.

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N2 - Recent advances in stochastic demography provide unique insights into the probable effects of increasing environmental variability on population dynamics, and these insights can be substantially different compared with those from deterministic models. Stochastic variation in structured population models influences estimates of population growth rate, persistence and resilience, which ultimately can alter community composition, species interactions, distributions and harvesting. Here, we discuss how understanding these demographic consequences of environmental variation will have applications for anticipating changes in populations resulting from anthropogenic activities that affect the variance in vital rates. We also highlight new tools for anticipating the consequences of the magnitude and temporal patterning of environmental variability.

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Demography in an increasingly variable world

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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