Abstract
Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (-2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988-2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979-2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Article number | 025205 |
| Journal | Environmental Research Letters |
| Volume | 5 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2010 |
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Keywords
- Climate change
- Climate models
- Global water cycle
- Rainfall extremes
- Satellite data
- Trends
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Cite this
Current changes in tropical precipitation. / Allan, Richard P.; Soden, Brian J; John, Viju O.; Ingram, William; Good, Peter.
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 5, No. 2, 025205, 2010.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Current changes in tropical precipitation
AU - Allan, Richard P.
AU - Soden, Brian J
AU - John, Viju O.
AU - Ingram, William
AU - Good, Peter
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (-2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988-2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979-2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.
AB - Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (-2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988-2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979-2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.
KW - Climate change
KW - Climate models
KW - Global water cycle
KW - Rainfall extremes
KW - Satellite data
KW - Trends
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77951933977&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77951933977&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:77951933977
VL - 5
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
SN - 1748-9326
IS - 2
M1 - 025205
ER -