Credence and self-location

Peter J. Lewis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations


All parties to the Sleeping Beauty debate agree that it shows that some cherished principle of rationality has to go. Thirders think that it is Conditionalization and Reflection that must be given up or modified; halfers think that it is the Principal Principle. I offer an analysis of the Sleeping Beauty puzzle that allows us to retain all three principles. In brief, I argue that Sleeping Beauty's credence in the uncentered proposition that the coin came up heads should be 1/2, but her credence in the centered proposition that the coin came up heads and it is Monday should be 1/3. I trace the source of the earlier mistakes to an unquestioned assumption in the debate, namely that an uncentered proposition is just a special kind of centered proposition. I argue that the falsity of this assumption is the real lesson of the Sleeping Beauty case.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)369-382
Number of pages14
Issue number3
StatePublished - 2010


  • Centered proposition
  • Conditionalization
  • Credence
  • Principal principle
  • Reflection
  • Self-location
  • Sleeping beauty
  • Uncentered proposition

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Philosophy
  • Social Sciences(all)


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