Could random convection form hurricanes in a warmer world

David S. Nolan, E. D. Rappin, K. A. Emanuel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The degree to which the frequency of tropical cyclogenesis depends on regional and global climate is assessed using version 2.1.2 of the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF). Simulations are first performed on 200-km × 200-km domains, which are too small to allow cyclogenesis during the transition to radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). When the domain-averaged profiles of temperature and relative humidity reach a steady state, these profiles are then used as initial conditions for larger domains. These large-domain simulations are used to simulate three processes: spontaneous TC genesis from random convection; genesis (or failure) from an incipient vortex; and TC decline over cooler temperatures. Overall, results support the notion that significant changes in tropical climate, whether on geologic or anthropogenic time scales, are accompanied by significant changes in tropical cyclone activity.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)559-560
Number of pages2
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Issue number5
StatePublished - May 1 2006

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science


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