Could random convection form hurricanes in a warmer world

David S. Nolan; E. D. Rappin; K. A. Emanuel

Could random convection form hurricanes in a warmer world

David S. Nolan, E. D. Rappin, K. A. Emanuel

Atmospheric Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The degree to which the frequency of tropical cyclogenesis depends on regional and global climate is assessed using version 2.1.2 of the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF). Simulations are first performed on 200-km × 200-km domains, which are too small to allow cyclogenesis during the transition to radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). When the domain-averaged profiles of temperature and relative humidity reach a steady state, these profiles are then used as initial conditions for larger domains. These large-domain simulations are used to simulate three processes: spontaneous TC genesis from random convection; genesis (or failure) from an incipient vortex; and TC decline over cooler temperatures. Overall, results support the notion that significant changes in tropical climate, whether on geologic or anthropogenic time scales, are accompanied by significant changes in tropical cyclone activity.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	559-560
Number of pages	2
Journal	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume	87
Issue number	5
State	Published - May 1 2006

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Atmospheric Science

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abstract = "The degree to which the frequency of tropical cyclogenesis depends on regional and global climate is assessed using version 2.1.2 of the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF). Simulations are first performed on 200-km × 200-km domains, which are too small to allow cyclogenesis during the transition to radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). When the domain-averaged profiles of temperature and relative humidity reach a steady state, these profiles are then used as initial conditions for larger domains. These large-domain simulations are used to simulate three processes: spontaneous TC genesis from random convection; genesis (or failure) from an incipient vortex; and TC decline over cooler temperatures. Overall, results support the notion that significant changes in tropical climate, whether on geologic or anthropogenic time scales, are accompanied by significant changes in tropical cyclone activity.",

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